Tuesday, November 28, 2023
No Result
View All Result
  • Media
Support Us
Macdonald-Laurier Institute
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Energy Policy
      • Energy
      • Environment
    • Foreign Policy
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs
  • Projects
    • The Promised Land: The Israel-Hamas war and the future of the Jewish community in Canada
    • The Great Energy Crisis
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
    • Dragon at the Door
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • Competition Policy in Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Justice Report Card
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Provincial COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
      • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Past Projects
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
      • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
      • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
      • Straight Talk
      • Labour Market Report
      • Leading Economic Indicator
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy
    • Papers
    • Commentary
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Video
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Energy Policy
      • Energy
      • Environment
    • Foreign Policy
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs
  • Projects
    • The Promised Land: The Israel-Hamas war and the future of the Jewish community in Canada
    • The Great Energy Crisis
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
    • Dragon at the Door
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • Competition Policy in Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Justice Report Card
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Provincial COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
      • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Past Projects
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
      • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
      • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
      • Straight Talk
      • Labour Market Report
      • Leading Economic Indicator
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy
    • Papers
    • Commentary
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Video
No Result
View All Result
Macdonald-Laurier Institute

Deciding on a Canadian approach to missile defence: Andrew Futter and Jeffrey Collins in iPolitics

August 20, 2018
in Foreign Policy Program, Latest News, National Defence, North America
Reading Time: 4 mins read
A A

While no approach to ballistic missile defence is perfect, Ottawa should be aware of the potential benefits, costs, and risks of both kinetic and cyber approaches, write Andrew Futter and Jeffrey Collins. 

By Andrew Futter and Jeffrey Collins, August 20, 2018

The nuclear threat posed by North Korea has put ballistic missile defence (BMD) back on the radar of Canadian defence discussions. In a recent paper from the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, titled Should Canada Participate in Ballistic Missile Defence?, 90 per cent of defence experts polled favoured Canadian participation in BMD. Those surveyed include former diplomats and senior military officers, ex-political advisers to past defence ministers, and scholars. 

The report found that today’s changed geopolitical circumstances warrants participation in missile defence. North Korea’s growing nuclear stockpile and advances in intercontinental ballistic missile technology now make it theoretically capable of striking North America. Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile aspirations have not dissipated either and have arguably become more of a concern since President Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal earlier this year. Former prime minister Paul Martin has even suggested that his government’s 2005 decision not to participate in BMD may be different today given these changed global circumstances. 

True, Canada has effectively participated in U.S. missile defence plans for decades, by way of its role in the North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD), which feeds information that is used for missile interceptions. Canada’s membership in NATO also means it indirectly supports the Alliance’s own BMD activities. 

But Ottawa has never committed itself directly to missile defence. Nearly two decades after President George W. Bush abrogated the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and deployed a limited missile defence system to protect the United States, the time now seems ripe for full Canadian participation. While the nascent BMD systems are still experiencing technological challenges, they have become much more widely accepted in the U.S. Indeed, missile defence has become recognised as a part of national security planning across the globe by many countries, including Canadian allies in Europe and Asia. 

However, any Canadian participation in BMD confronts the issue of financial cost. The only continental-based system capable of defending Canada from a North Korean launch is the ground-based BMD system. With 44 interceptors located in Alaska and California, it was estimated in 2017 that an additional 14 interceptors would cost US$1 billion. Outside of Canada offering a host ‘site’ for new interceptors, a straight-up purchase during a time of costly procurement projects seems politically out of the question. 

One potentially attractive way to square the issue of cost is with cyber capabilities. The United States – at least partly due to a lack of confidence in the system deployed – is currently looking toward different options for defeating enemy missiles. This new approach includes “full spectrum” and “left of launch” operations, such as using cyber-attacks to prevent a launch or electronic measures to interfere with missile telemetry. Thus, a future rogue state nuclear threat to the United States might be defeated beforethe missile ever leaves the ground. 

The revelation of the Stuxnet attack against the Iranian uranium enrichment facility at Natanz in 2010 gives some indication of what might be achieved through cyber means, and a series of North Korean missile test failures over recent years could have been the result of similar activities. Either way, such methods are clearly part of the plan to manage the North Korean challenge. 

Such an approach may well be more effective, and indeed cheaper than the BMD interceptors. As proposed in Bill C-59, Canada already seems to have accepted the need to engage in offensive cyber operations, which opens up the possibility of a cyber missile defence option. 

Policy makers would do well to assess the benefits of cooperating on “left of launch” cyber approach. But they also need to understand the potential costs as well. First, missile systems have to be breached “pre-emptively” and attacks may have to be carried out preventively; second, it is far harder to quantify this capability (as opposed to interceptors), which will cause big concerns for strategic competitors because cyber capabilities are far less tangible; third, the risk that such actions create a norm permitting attacks on sensitive military systems, is dangerous; and fourth, such activities may well backfire, especially if intruders are caught or attacks go wrong. 

Taken together one wonders whether messing around in either nuclear command and control or delivery systems is really something that Canada wants to be doing.

Canadian policy makers therefore need to think long and hard about the type of missile defence mission they want to subscribe to and decide whether it makes sense to become involved with an expanded program to ensure greater protection, or whether it makes more sense to rely on – the far from guaranteed – kinetic interception. Neither approach is perfect, but officials in Ottawa must be aware of the potential costs and risks of both approaches, and of what they might be signing up to with partners south of the border. 

Andrew Futter, PhD, is an Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Leicester and author of the book, “Hacking the Bomb.” Jeffrey F. Collins, PhD, is a Fellow with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and author of the MLI report, “Should Canada Participate in Ballistic Missile Defence?”

Share this:
Tags: ballistic missile defenceBMDJeffrey Collinsnational defence
Previous Post

Soviet lessons from WWII should be kept in mind today: Marcus Kolga for the Toronto Sun

Next Post

National pharmacare a departure from past legal and policy thinking: Sean Speer for Inside Policy

Related Posts

Indigenous loan program must include oil and gas: Chris Sankey in the National Post
Columns

Indigenous loan program must include oil and gas: Chris Sankey in the National Post

November 28, 2023
Hope for a post-Putin Russia: Marcus Kolga for Inside Policy
Inside Policy

Hope for a post-Putin Russia: Marcus Kolga for Inside Policy

November 28, 2023
A history of boil water advisories
Commentary

A history of boil water advisories

November 28, 2023
Next Post
Sean Speer, US deficit, deficit reduction

National pharmacare a departure from past legal and policy thinking: Sean Speer for Inside Policy

Newsletter Signup

  Thank you for Signing Up
  Please correct the marked field(s) below.
Email Address  *
1,true,6,Contact Email,2
First Name *
1,true,1,First Name,2
Last Name *
1,true,1,Last Name,2
*
*Required Fields

Follow us on

Macdonald-Laurier Institute

323 Chapel Street, Suite #300
Ottawa, Ontario, K1N 7Z2 Canada

613.482.8327

info@macdonaldlaurier.ca
MLI directory

Support Us

Support the Macdonald-Laurier Institute to help ensure that Canada is one of the best governed countries in the world. Click below to learn more or become a sponsor.

Support Us

  • Inside Policy Magazine
  • Annual Reports
  • Jobs
  • Privacy Policy

© 2023 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Energy Policy
      • Energy
      • Environment
    • Foreign Policy
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs
  • Projects
    • The Promised Land: The Israel-Hamas war and the future of the Jewish community in Canada
    • The Great Energy Crisis
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
    • Dragon at the Door
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • Competition Policy in Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Justice Report Card
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Provincial COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
      • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Past Projects
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
      • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
      • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
      • Straight Talk
      • Labour Market Report
      • Leading Economic Indicator
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy
    • Papers
    • Commentary
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Video

© 2023 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.