Tuesday, March 28, 2023
No Result
View All Result
  • Media
Support Us
Macdonald-Laurier Institute
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
    • Women’s History Month Fundraiser
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Energy Policy Program
      • Energy
      • Environment
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Competition Policy in Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Annual Reports
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
    • Women’s History Month Fundraiser
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Energy Policy Program
      • Energy
      • Environment
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Competition Policy in Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Annual Reports
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
No Result
View All Result
Macdonald-Laurier Institute

A Cold War 2.0 over Supremacy in the 5G/IoT era: Akihiro Magara for Inside Policy

March 14, 2019
in Columns, Dragon at the Door, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy Program, In the Media, Indo-Pacific, Inside Policy, Latest News
Reading Time: 4 mins read
A A

An incipient Cold War 2.0 over supremacy in the 5G and IoT (Internet of Things) era will start to heat up in 2020, writes Akihiro Magara. This article is based on a presentation made at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute during a roundtable meeting on February 12, 2019.

By Akihiro Magara, March 14, 2019

We are trying to row a boat through the rough sea of uncertainty caused by the US-China stand-off.  I think we are indeed facing a sea change.  Most experts, however, seem to be unable to sail in this new direction, trapped in the eddy of international cooperation. I believe that this change should be clearly understood as a Cold War 2.0 over supremacy in the 5G and Internet of Things era, which will heat up starting in 2020.

While Cold Wars need not always be “hot” or lead to direct kinetic conflict between two adversaries, they can be a kind of total war.  In a total war, non-military factors such as economic power and a resolute citizenry, can be decisive in victory or defeat.  A total war with a nation that adopts a strategy of a protracted war under nuclear deterrence can lead to a drawn out “war without battles.”  The Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, which lasted from 1947 until 1991, is an example of this.

Now, there are analysts who disagree with the characterization of today’s US-China tensions as a cold war.  They claim that it is not a cold war, insisting that this confrontation is not ideological. However, I believe that a difference of ideologies is not a necessary condition of cold war.  It’s my view that the ideology of communism was only a means for Soviet imperialism during the first Cold War. Former US Secretary of State Dean Acheson made this point in a speech in 1950.  Acheson stated that “Communistic concept and techniques have armed Russian imperialism with a new and most insidious weapon of penetration.”  The difference between Cold War 1.0 and Cold War 2.0 is the difference in the “insidious weapon of penetration.”

In addition, those who are opposed to the idea of an inevitable clash between the US and China point to the depth of their mutually interdependent economic relationship. What distinguished the era of Cold War 1.0 was how closed the Soviet-Eastern bloc system was, as represented by the Iron Curtain.  As a consequence, there was no mutual economic interdependence between East and West.  In contrast, China’s falsely open system stands out in this Cold War 2.0.  I would call this the “Bamboo Curtain,” meaning that the entry of Western values is restricted while goods, money and people are allowed to move freely back and forth.  America’s manufacturing and defence industries have become very dependent on their supply chains that link them to China through this Bamboo Curtain.

Today’s reliance by American manufacturing on overseas supply chains did not exist during World War II or the first Cold War.  If spy chips were to be embedded in military weapons or critical infrastructure, the US might have to surrender to China without even a fight.  It is not an exaggeration to say that the battleground for Cold War 2.0 as a total war will be the manufacturing industry supply chain.

The West is leaning towards largely prohibiting the use of Huawei and other Chinese-made equipment in 5G networks.  This calls to mind the containment policy of the past.  The objective of George Kennan’s containment policy was to restrain Russian expansionist tendencies and to protect the then-important industrial countries of the US, UK, Germany and Japan, as well as Central Europe.  Barring Chinese-made equipment would be the first step of a containment policy to restrain China’s expansionist tendencies in Cold War 2.0.

The issue, however, is that simply joining the American-led network would not assure a nation’s security.  On the same day as US Vice President Mike Pence’s de facto declaration of a Cold War 2.0 during his speech last October at the Hudson Institute, Bloomberg reported that China had secretly planted spy chips in the devices of almost 30 American companies.  Also on that same day, Reuters reported on the US Defense Department paper that sounded the alarm about supply chain resiliency in the defence industry.

The Trump administration is working to bring the manufacturing supply chain back to the US and to decouple from China.  This is to be commended from the perspective of overcoming the strategic vulnerability of relying on China for its supply chain.  Moreover, returning the supply chain to the US also makes sense as production costs decline due to advances in robotics and artificial intelligence in manufacturing.

The problem is how to accomplish this.  The US and its allies need to rebuild a manufacturing supply chain without assessing additional duties/tariffs.  The important point here is the Internet of Things made possible by 5G. In a world in which Cold War 2.0 will be fought on the battlefield of the manufacturing supply chain, I believe the US and its allies will need to share a trust chain for their manufacturing industries that would exclude products and communications that cannot be verified as to where it was made and who they’re communicating with. By remaking the American manufacturing supply chain, I think we can create a system that would withstand the protracted war that could occur under Cold War 2.0.

Akihiro Magara is Executive Vice President of the Asian Forum Japan (AFJ).

Tags: 5gChinaCold War
Previous Post

What the OECD’s ‘Concern’ Over SNC-Lavalin Means for Canada: Elliot Tepper on CTV News

Next Post

Can we afford National Pharmacare and do people want it? Jeffrey Simpson for Inside Policy

Related Posts

Election interference allegations: Christian Leuprecht on CBC News
Video

Election interference allegations: Christian Leuprecht on CBC News

March 27, 2023
The “Tesla of LNG Plants” is right here in Canada: Mike Priaro for Inside Policy
Columns

Indigenous communities are key to solving the global energy crisis: Chris Sankey in the National Post

March 27, 2023
Putin and Xi driven to make authoritarianism the standard worldwide: Balkan Devlen in the National Post
Columns

Putin and Xi driven to make authoritarianism the standard worldwide: Balkan Devlen in the National Post

March 24, 2023
Next Post
Can we afford National Pharmacare and do people want it? Jeffrey Simpson for Inside Policy

Can we afford National Pharmacare and do people want it? Jeffrey Simpson for Inside Policy

Macdonald-Laurier Institute

323 Chapel Street, Suite #300
Ottawa, Ontario
K1N 7Z2 Canada

613.482.8327

info@macdonaldlaurier.ca
MLI directory

Follow us on

Newsletter Signup

Support Us

Support the Macdonald-Laurier Institute to help ensure that Canada is one of the best governed countries in the world. Click below to learn more or become a sponsor.

Support Us

Inside Policy Magazine

  • Current Issue
  • Back Issues
  • Advertising
  • Inside Policy Blog
  • Privacy Policy

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
    • Women’s History Month Fundraiser
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Energy Policy Program
      • Energy
      • Environment
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Competition Policy in Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Annual Reports
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.