Monday, February 6, 2023
No Result
View All Result
  • Media
Support Us
Macdonald-Laurier Institute
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
No Result
View All Result
Macdonald-Laurier Institute

The world is right to be nervous on Donald Trump’s inauguration day: Stephen Saideman in the Citizen

January 20, 2017
in Centre for Advancing Canada's Interests Abroad, Columns, In the Media, Latest News, Signature initiatives
Reading Time: 4 mins read
A A

Steve SaidemanA bumpy ride is the best Canadians can hope for from President-Elect Donald Trump’s approach to international affairs, writes Stephen Saideman in the Ottawa Citizen.

Saideman, a Carleton University professor of international affairs, is authoring a paper for MLI’s Global Security Look Ahead series.

By Stephen Saideman, Jan. 20, 2017

Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president has much of the world nervous, and rightfully so. Trump is no ordinary politician, and he has frequently taken all sides of many issues, so it is hard to discern what he is likely to do.

This gets to the heart of the matter: Trump generates uncertainty. Because of his disregard for the norms of American politics, because of his habit of switching positions and because he is not tied to any constituency, Trump raises doubts about American guarantees and commitments – a critical challenge not just for Canadian-American bilateral relations but for global peace and prosperity.

During the election, Trump took stances that challenged and undermined the building blocks of the post-war international order. For instance, Trump has taken the NATO burden-sharing debate to a new level, suggesting allied countries paying less than they have committed might not get American assistance if attacked. This can be compared to the past, when the U.S. was more willing than most to commit to defending the Baltic countries.

Because of his disregard for the norms of American politics, because of his habit of switching positions and because he is not tied to any constituency, Trump raises doubts about American guarantees and commitments

Similarly, Trump has consistently expressed a desire to protect the American market from international competition. But the U.S. market has been a key factor in global economic stability due to its openness. With a threat to raise tariffs significantly on Chinese goods and a promise to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, the U.S. will no longer be the market of last resort. This, too, should worry Canadians.

Will Trump follow through on his musings?

We do not know, which is not necessarily all that reassuring. Throughout history, uncertainty about allies – including possibly misperceiving their responses – has been a frequent cause for war. Uncertainty causes countries to anticipate, and leaves allies to hedge their bets by appeasing the likely aggressor or, in recent years, by investing in nuclear weapons. For example, in the summer of 1990, Iraqi president Saddam Hussein met with the American ambassador about border tensions between Iraq and Kuwait. Hussein left that meeting assured that the U.S. did not have a position in the dispute. That was not meant as a green light for an Iraqi attack, but that is how Hussein saw it.

How may this play out over the next four years? Already, Trump’s phone call with the president of Taiwan – with conflicting stories of whether this was planned or improvised – has led to China flying a plane armed with nuclear weapons over the South China Sea. Trump’s hostile statements about NATO will almost certainly lead to a test by Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

Likewise, uncertainty is bad for most financial markets. Businesses may hold off on investing until they have a better idea of what may happen, leading to a recession. In the current case, countries may opt to side with China, rather than the United States, if they feel the former is a greater source of economic stability. Already, the likely demise of the Trans Pacific Partnership is giving China greater sway.

Why is Trump so uncertain? As a self-described deal maker, he frequently bluffs to get bargains. Such behaviour might be advantageous in real estate, but it has significant downsides in international relations. Also, Trump seems to respect no norms or rules, and he has no ties to any constituencies. Trump did not come to power by appealing to specific interest groups within the Republican Party. This aspect of Trump’s candidacy appealed to many, but again it contributes to uncertainty.

What does this mean for Canada?

As an international relations scholar, I find it strange to be longing for a less interesting time in world politics.

A bumpy ride is the best that Canadians can hope for. If Trump destabilizes international markets, the Canadian dollar and the Toronto Stock Exchange will feel the effects. Increased trade barriers will obviously be extremely costly for Canadian producers. His NATO stances will have a direct effect on Canada’s key military engagement. If Trump pulls American troops out of East Europe, the Canadian deployment to Latvia would face a higher risk of being tested by Putin and Russia.

What can Canadian leaders do to deal with Trump’s uncertainty engine? They will have to avoid reacting to every swing, every statement, and try to work at lower levels of government. That is, Trump’s people do not have connections deep into the Washington bureaucracy, so perhaps the best bet is for Canada to work on the relationship and its many issues at the level of civil servants and not at the head of government.

Even then, misunderstandings will now be of primary concern for the next four – and potentially eight – years. Given Trump’s rocky start in relations with China, the latter’s reputed ancient curse seems prescient: “May you live in interesting times.” As an international relations scholar, I find it strange to be longing for a less interesting time in world politics.

Stephen M. Saideman is the Paterson Chair in International Affairs at Carleton University.

Tags: Donald Trump
Previous Post

Time for policy elites to take fear of disappearing jobs seriously: Brian Lee Crowley in the Globe

Next Post

Donald Trump delivers a world of uncertainty to global affairs: MLI commentary by Stephen Saideman

Related Posts

Prioritizing gender identity over sex in prisons endangers female prisoners
Releases

Prioritizing gender identity over sex in prisons endangers female prisoners

February 6, 2023
Greedflation? It’s a government thing: Philip Cross in the Financial Post
Columns

Jagmeet Singh uses confusion about private care to support the status quo: Shawn Whatley in the National Post

February 6, 2023
Stronger enforcement of the Competition Act is better than a dramatic overhaul
Commentary

Stronger enforcement of the Competition Act is better than a dramatic overhaul

February 2, 2023
Next Post
Donald Trump delivers a world of uncertainty to global affairs: MLI commentary by Stephen Saideman

Donald Trump delivers a world of uncertainty to global affairs: MLI commentary by Stephen Saideman

Macdonald-Laurier Institute

323 Chapel Street, Suite #300
Ottawa, Ontario
K1N 7Z2 Canada

613.482.8327

info@macdonaldlaurier.ca
MLI directory

Follow us on

Newsletter Signup

First Name
Last Name
Email Address

Support Us

Support the Macdonald-Laurier Institute to help ensure that Canada is one of the best governed countries in the world. Click below to learn more or become a sponsor.

Support Us

Inside Policy Magazine

  • Current Issue
  • Back Issues
  • Advertising
  • Inside Policy Blog
  • Privacy Policy

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.

IDEAS CHANGE THE WORLD!Have the latest Canadian thought leadership delivered straight to your inbox.
First Name
Last Name
Email address

No thanks, I’m not interested.