By Casey Babb, March 19, 2024
The Middle East – at least large swaths of it – is in a state of chaos.
In Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces are in an existential war with Hamas, while in northern Israel, the country is bracing for all-out conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. At the same time, and against the backdrop of an already apocalyptic humanitarian crisis in Yemen, Iran-backed Houthi extremists continue attacking merchant vessels and U.S. navy ships in the Red Sea, disrupting one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. In Syria – a country largely forgotten by the international community – civilians are struggling to survive the largest surge in violence that they’ve seen in years. In Iraq, the government is in talks with Turkey to carry-out a largescale offensive against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, while in Iran, the country’s fundamentalist regime is quietly forging ahead with plans for nuclear breakout and regional hegemony.
As the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs recently remarked, the situation in the Middle East has likely “never been worse.” Yet, despite these calamities, Western nations – including Canada – appear to have no strategic plan or vision when it comes to the Middle East. If left unaddressed, this total lack of strategic engagement will lead to deadly and disastrous consequences.
The “Pivot” in Washington
On September 29 of last year, U.S. President Joe Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan said that “the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.” Naturally, Sullivan’s remarks aged poorly (and quickly) – only a week later the heinous terrorist attacks in Israel on October 7 shocked the world. However, Sullivan’s statement still exposes a deeper issue when it comes to American strategy and a lack of focus on the Middle East.
Since 2011, when the Obama Administration announced a “Pivot to Asia,” America and its allies have become laser focused on the Indo-Pacific and the many threats posed by China – whom U.S. officials describe as the country’s “top pacing challenge.” For a variety of reasons, it makes sense that international attention has moved away from the Middle East and towards Beijing.
From widespread foreign interference campaigns, to unrelenting commercial espionage, largescale human-rights abuses, and several critical matters related to economic competitiveness – not to mention a looming invasion of Taiwan – the U.S. and its allies have plenty of reasons to dedicate the bulk of their military, economic, and diplomatic resources towards the Far East. In addition, America’s Asia pivot was also driven by a desire to disengage from a Middle East that was costing the U.S. and its allies billions of dollars and thousands of lives. Unfortunately, though, the West hasn’t been able to pull-back from the region, nor have they done a particularly good job at confronting China. What we’re left with is an increasingly aggressive and assertive Chinese government, and a Middle East that’s spiralled out of control.
In recent years, several major issues have kept the Biden Administration, and subsequently, many of its key allies, anchored to the Middle East in one way or another. Yet, with U.S. sights set on Asia – and now Ukraine – many of these issues have not only stalled – they’ve worsened. For instance, in addition to a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan which has led to a resurgent and oppressive Taliban, the U.S. and its allies have been unable to move the needle on the Iranian nuclear deal. In addition, Arab-Israeli normalization – another pillar of Biden’s bumbled and naive approach to the Middle East – has barely moved since the historic Abraham Accords under the Trump Administration.
Indeed, what once appeared to be an inevitable warming of diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Riyadh now seems like a distant fantasy hinging on an even more illusory achievement – Palestinian statehood. All told – America’s bungled recalibration towards China has left western interests – particularly its national security – terribly exposed in the Middle East.
Having many pots on the stove is no excuse to leave one boiling over unattended. As Jon Hoffman recently wrote in Foreign Policy – “the region is on fire, and Washington is to blame.”
The Road Ahead
Going forward – the U.S. and its international allies – including Canada – need to pivot once again, back to the Arabian Peninsula and surrounding region. While the war in Ukraine rages on and China’s insidious global strategies intensify – the West will need to find a way to operate diplomatically and militarily in multiple conflict zones. By no means does this mean making life easier for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party or Vladimir Putin and his band of thuggish puppets. Rather, it means exercising greater foresight in the Middle East, playing to our strengths in such a way that our interests are protected and advanced, and facing the realities of a rapidly changing region. It means seeking out and eliminating jihadis who are capitalizing on chaos to breathe new life into barbaric terror networks, it means snuffing out the spread of radical ideologies which, since October 7, seem to have intensified and spread from Canberra to Ottawa, and it means preventing countries like Iran, hellbent on regional domination, from achieving what they’ve set out to do.
For Canada, the re-start button must be hit on a non-existent Middle East strategy. As challenging as it may be – especially given limited resources and what seems to be absolutely zero political will – Ottawa will need to find a way to make the Middle East a priority again, alongside the War in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific. A significant element of this reset means supporting and investing in our dwindling military. Crucially, it also means changing the rhetoric and actually standing up for what Canada is and what Canadians believe in, rather than releasing ambiguous public statements meant to mollify the Palestinian protestors tormenting the country’s Jewish population.
Decade after decade, government after government, and war after war, the Middle East reminds the world of its significance. Unfortunately, western leaders have tried to disentangle themselves from a region that demands our collective attention, resources, and effort. If we fail to act, if we fail to refocus on the Middle East, we could, once again, stumble half-asleep into disaster, death, and despair.
Together in arms, the U.S., Canada, and our international allies must be clear-eyed, resolute, and unwavering in the face of terrorists and tyrants in the Middle East – our survival and that of western liberal democracies depend on it.
Casey Babb is a Fellow with both the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and the Royal United Services Institute in London, England. He teaches courses on terrorism and international security at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs in Ottawa
