By Ania Bessonov, May 1, 2024
More than 200 days have passed since the October 7 attacks and the Middle East continues to endure substantial hostilities, leaving just about every other region around the world in uproar.
Yet, while the world has been focused on the turmoil in Israel and Gaza, as well as mounting tensions between Iran and Israel, less attention has been paid to the success of the Abraham Accords – a historic, US-brokered agreement that saw Israel sign respective treaties with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and later Morocco.
Those treaties have demonstrated remarkable tenacity amid the regional tension. Not only have the signatories of the accords, particularly the United Arab Emirates, broadly held to their pre-October 7 position, but wider regional coordination among the US, Israel, and Sunni Gulf allies – who also fall within the US CENTCOM coalition – during Iran’s April 14 attack on Israel demonstrated an unprecedented alignment, and a strong appetite for fortifying alliances beyond the current accord countries.
Experts and analysts were left stunned by the unification that has shaken the status quo of Middle East geopolitics. This unprecedented unity has set the course for a new path that will shape the diplomacy of the region and present new engagement opportunities – opportunities that should be embraced by Ottawa.
In the last few years, Canada has shifted much of its foreign policy focus to the Indo-Pacific, particularly since the Trudeau government’s announcement of its first strategy in the region on November 27, 2022. The move followed in Washington’s footsteps and represented Ottawa’s attempt to walk its own diplomatic tightrope with Beijing and New Delhi.
But the Israel-Hamas war has exposed other vulnerabilities in our domestic politics and foreign policies. Hundreds of protests, some of which have seen violent escalations, have filled the streets of major Canadian cities and hate crimes are reaching all-time highs. This tension in our society has become difficult to ignore. A similarly tense division became evident even within Trudeau’s own Liberal caucus last month when chaos unfolded during an NDP motion to recognize a Palestinian state. These tensions, rooted in a lack of clear direction in Canada’s strategy in the Middle East, require immediate attention.
Where the Abraham Accords stand since October 7
The accords themselves have made significant headway in their short lifespan. On the economic front, the total trade between Israel and Accord countries surpassed US$4 billion in 2023 as per Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics – a remarkable 16 percent year-on-year increase from 2022. Further, trade among accord countries only dropped 4 percent since October 7, compared to the 18 percent decrease in Israel’s overall trade.
Alongside the economic boost, significant progress has been made in supporting the technological and military sectors of the respective states. The magnitude of trade and military cooperation between the states speaks to the fundamental role of allyship between the respective leaderships aiming to strengthen their positions as unprecedented instability in the region mounts – particularly with the growing threat of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iran.
The durability of the accords amid the regional unrest should not be overlooked. The Israel-Hamas War has put pressure on the agreement as ambassadors on both sides have been recalled to their home countries. Bahrain recalled its ambassador from Israel, while others never returned to their posts following October 7. Israel’s ambassadors to Bahrain, Morocco, and Egypt have largely stayed in Israel since Hamas’s attack on Israeli civilians. Meanwhile, Cairo has underscored its position that if Palestinians are to be displaced into Egypt, its own treaty with Israel would be at risk and a recent article by the New York Times reported that support for the accords in the UAE has become increasingly scarce.
The UAE also made statements condemning Israel in specific instances, such as the World Central Kitchen incident, but despite these challenges Emiratis appear steadfast in their alignment with Israel and their commitment to the accords. In addition to believing that “diplomatic and political communications are important in difficult times such as those we are witnessing,” as written in a statement to the Times, the Emirati government has highlighted its unique relationship with Israel as a way to facilitate the medical treatment of injured Gazans in the UAE.
Canada’s position in the Middle East
Understanding the valuable role played by accord signatories amid the hostilities should signal the value of the accords to Ottawa. For years, sentiments about the danger posed by the IRGC have built momentum in Canada. Calls to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization gained traction among Iranian dissidents in Canada and inside Parliament after Iran shot down Ukrainian Airlines PS752 in January 2020, killing 176 people, including 85 Canadian citizens and permanent residents, and after the 2022 beating death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian woman killed by Iran’s “morality police” for being “improperly veiled.”
Ottawa also called Tehran’s retaliatory attack of 400 rockets sent toward Israel on April 14 an example of Iran’s “malign” regional influence and imposed four new sanctions to the existing list of more than 200 – this latest round targeting two institutions and two military leaders.
Concurrently, the Abraham Accords provide Canada an opportunity to accelerate its diplomacy, not solely with the current signatories, but with potential additions. While official members of the accords include UAE, Bahrain, and by extension Morocco, the coordination in response to Iran’s recent attack on Israel displayed a working alliance among other key regional players such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
The feasibility of Saudi Arabia’s participation in the accords was growing right up until October 6. That momentum was on the heels of an open skies agreement made between Israel and Saudi Arabia in 2022 permitting Israeli planes to fly over Saudi airspace. Talks of Riyadh revisiting the potential partnership once hostilities settle down is simmering among analysts, and for Canada, who recently began rekindling its relationship with Saudi Arabia after a turbulent diplomatic stretch, the opportunity to build a more pronounced cooperation with the kingdom should be prioritized. In fact, Ottawa would be well-positioned to take part in Riyadh’s potential integration talks to the accords.
As Canada inches closer to the next federal election and as Canadians are increasingly concerned with Canada’s place in the world, committing to strong diplomacy will be fundamental for party platforms; Canada’s leaders should account for the durability of the Abraham Accords and the resulting possibility of a significantly altered Middle East when developing their foreign policies.
Ania Bessonov is a Consultant with Crestview Strategy based in Toronto. She is an award-winning journalist who has reported and produced multi-beat stories for print, radio, social media, and broadcast. Her reporting has taken her beyond Canadian borders, including the Middle East, the U.S., and Central Asia, where she covered the Russia-Ukraine war from Kazakhstan and Mongolia.
