Sunday, January 29, 2023
No Result
View All Result
  • Media
Support Us
Macdonald-Laurier Institute
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
No Result
View All Result
Macdonald-Laurier Institute

MLI Commentary by Philip Cross: Despite expected surplus, Canada isn’t as rich as you think

October 8, 2014
in Commentary, Domestic Policy Program, Economic policy, Latest News, Releases
Reading Time: 2 mins read
A A

Ottawa is for the first time in years on track to balance the budget, but a new commentary from the Macdonald-Laurier Institute warns that worrying pressures lurk beneath the headline numbers.

OTTAWA, Oct. 8, 2014 – A soon-to-be-declared federal budget surplus does not mean that Ottawa can diagnose its finances as healthy, according to a new commentary from the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

Philip Cross, a senior fellow with MLI and a former chief economic analyst with Statistics Canada, warns that numerous pressures are going to squeeze federal budgets in the years to come.

The deficit has leveled off from $40 billion at its peak to $9 billion over the last four quarters, but, he says, the aging of the population will present problems on a number of fronts.

A big area of concern is on the revenue side, since there will be more retirees and therefore fewer of our highest-earning workers paying income tax.

However an older population will also force the federal government to spend.

There will be increased demands on Canada’s health care system as well as the unfunded portions of the retirement system (particularly Old Age Security and the Guaranteed Income Supplement) and the pension benefits for federal civil service retirees.

“While the current state of federal finances has improved significantly since the recession, there is no room for complacency”, says Cross in the commentary paper, titled “You’re Not As Rich As You Think: Federal finances and the fiscal dividend”.

Ottawa will also need to keep an eye peeled for how provincial governments fare in wrestling their budgets back into surplus.

Most Canadian provinces – including Ontario and Quebec – continue to run deficits. Without fundamental changes to how they do business, Cross notes, the potential for a default increases.

That would place an additional pressure on federal finances, since financial markets anticipate an implicit guarantee that Ottawa will bail them out if necessary.

Cross advises the federal government to avoid chasing short-term budgetary surpluses and instead erect a steadier structure for government spending by introducing innovation in areas such as health care and educational services.

“Fiscal rectitude is not measured by short-term budgetary surpluses, which can prove to be bogus or ephemeral, but by an ongoing commitment to root out obsolete government programs and boost productivity within government”, Cross says.

In his new paper, Cross cites the findings of an MLI paper titled “Provincial Solvency and Federal Obligations”, which warns that Ottawa will need to bail the provinces out if they default on their loans and that this in effect subsidises risky provincial borrowing.

The commentary is based on testimony Cross delivered to the House of Commons’ Standing Committee on Finance on Sept. 29 during pre-budget consultations.

Click here to read the full commentary.

# # #

Philip Cross is a senior fellow with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute and a former chief economic analyst with Statistics Canada.

The Macdonald-Laurier Institute is the only non-partisan, independent national public policy think tank in Ottawa focusing on the full range of issues that fall under the jurisdiction of the federal government.

For more information, please contact Mark Brownlee, communications manager, at 613-482-8327 x105 or email at mark.brownlee@macdonaldlaurier.ca. On Twitter @MLInstitute

Previous Post

Watch: Cross discusses federal budget pressures at Commons committee

Next Post

Inside Policy: F.H. Buckley book excerpt

Related Posts

Canada can help Ukraine in better ways than sending tanks: Richard Shimooka in the Hub
Columns

Canada can help Ukraine in better ways than sending tanks: Richard Shimooka in the Hub

January 27, 2023
Just as Canadians see smartphone bills head down, the cost of watching online content on them may be going up: Peter Menzies in the Financial Post
Columns

Want cheaper cellphone bills? Allow more foreign investment in telecoms: Aaron Wudrick in the National Post

January 27, 2023
Face it, millennials – There is no realistic alternative to capitalism: Philip Cross in the Financial Post
Columns

Face it, millennials – There is no realistic alternative to capitalism: Philip Cross in the Financial Post

January 27, 2023
Next Post
Inside Policy

Inside Policy: F.H. Buckley book excerpt

Macdonald-Laurier Institute

323 Chapel Street, Suite #300
Ottawa, Ontario
K1N 7Z2 Canada

613.482.8327

info@macdonaldlaurier.ca
MLI directory

Follow us on

Newsletter Signup

First Name
Last Name
Email Address

Support Us

Support the Macdonald-Laurier Institute to help ensure that Canada is one of the best governed countries in the world. Click below to learn more or become a sponsor.

Support Us

Inside Policy Magazine

  • Current Issue
  • Back Issues
  • Advertising
  • Inside Policy Blog
  • Privacy Policy

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.

IDEAS CHANGE THE WORLD!Have the latest Canadian thought leadership delivered straight to your inbox.
First Name
Last Name
Email address

No thanks, I’m not interested.