Tuesday, February 7, 2023
No Result
View All Result
  • Media
Support Us
Macdonald-Laurier Institute
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
No Result
View All Result
Macdonald-Laurier Institute

High debt levels place Canadian economy in precarious spot: Quarterly economic report from Philip Cross

June 27, 2017
in Commentary, Latest News, Leading Economic Indicator, Philip Cross, Releases
Reading Time: 2 mins read
A A

Philip CrossRising debt levels tempered optimism about increased growth during the first quarter of 2017, writes Philip Cross

OTTAWA, June 27, 2017 – Canadians’ willingness to borrow to finance spending is leaving Canada extra-vulnerable to downswings in the economy, writes Philip Cross in his latest quarterly economic report for the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

Canada’s real GDP rose 0.9 per cent in the first quarter, continuing an uptick that began last year. After two years of sub-par growth, Canada’s economy will likely return to its post-2009 average of about 2 percent at annual rates.

A few factors are calling the sustainability of that growth into question.

First, there was a reliance on inventory, with firms rebuilding stocks after strong fourth quarter sales. Second, housing continues to be the fastest growing sector, led by Toronto’s potentially volatile housing market.

Yet the composition of spending is not the only cause for alarm.

More significant is the continued expansion of debt, which covers all sectors of the economy—households, governments and businesses.

To read the full report, click here.

A good indicator is the ratio of total debt outstanding to nominal GDP, which surged 36.3 percent in just the last two years. Even as incomes slumped during the oil price crash, all domestic sectors borrowed more and saved less.

“Importantly, this debt was not invested in assets to generate higher income in the future, which could be used for both debt repayment and to raise standards of living”, writes Cross.

“Instead, much of it has gone towards bidding up home prices and increasing government spending on its employees and transfers to households”.

The risk of indebtedness is even greater for Canada, given that its economy is exposed to large swings in its export earnings. This is visible in both its natural resource base, as demonstrated by the sharp fluctuations in the energy sector over the last two years, and in its highly cyclical manufacturing sector. This risk is compounded by the higher cost of servicing debt denominated in US dollars, as the exchange rate devalues, as well as the volatile boom and bust cycle of Toronto’s housing market.

“The risk of debt is that it requires payments even when incomes slow or prices decline, as the US and many European and emerging market nations learned in recent years despite low interest rates”, writes Cross.

Cross’ quarterly economic updates are meant to be a companion item to his monthly Leading Economic Indicator updates.

The Indicator is available on Bloomberg and is intended for journalists and analysts who follow the macro performance of the Canadian economy. Quarterly economic analyses by Cross, based on the results of the indicator, will appear on the MLI website.

To see past Leading Economic Indicators, click here.

***

Philip Cross is a Munk Senior Fellow with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. He previously served as the Chief Economic Analyst for Statistics Canada, part of a 36-year career with the agency.

The Macdonald-Laurier Institute is the only non-partisan, independent national public policy think tank in Ottawa focusing on the full range of issues that fall under the jurisdiction of the federal government.

For more information, please contact Mark Brownlee, communications manager, at 613-482-8327 x105 or email at mark.brownlee@macdonaldlaurier.ca.

Tags: debtLeading Economic IndicatorPhilip Cross
Previous Post

Beware the border adjustment tax: Stanley Hartt in Inside Policy

Next Post

The Common Interests of British North America – Address by Thomas D’Arcy McGee delivered at the Temperance Hall, July 21st, 1863

Related Posts

It’s time to leverage Canada’s energy advantage into a geopolitical one, too: Shuvaloy Majumdar in Maclean’s
Columns

For the oil patch, ‘just transition’ is buzzword legislation, not sound economics: Heather Exner-Pirot in the Globe

February 7, 2023
Prioritizing gender identity over sex in prisons endangers female prisoners
Releases

Prioritizing gender identity over sex in prisons endangers female prisoners

February 6, 2023
Greedflation? It’s a government thing: Philip Cross in the Financial Post
Columns

Jagmeet Singh uses confusion about private care to support the status quo: Shawn Whatley in the National Post

February 6, 2023
Next Post
Fathers of Confederation

The Common Interests of British North America – Address by Thomas D’Arcy McGee delivered at the Temperance Hall, July 21st, 1863

Macdonald-Laurier Institute

323 Chapel Street, Suite #300
Ottawa, Ontario
K1N 7Z2 Canada

613.482.8327

info@macdonaldlaurier.ca
MLI directory

Follow us on

Newsletter Signup

First Name
Last Name
Email Address

Support Us

Support the Macdonald-Laurier Institute to help ensure that Canada is one of the best governed countries in the world. Click below to learn more or become a sponsor.

Support Us

Inside Policy Magazine

  • Current Issue
  • Back Issues
  • Advertising
  • Inside Policy Blog
  • Privacy Policy

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.

IDEAS CHANGE THE WORLD!Have the latest Canadian thought leadership delivered straight to your inbox.
First Name
Last Name
Email address

No thanks, I’m not interested.