Monday, February 6, 2023
No Result
View All Result
  • Media
Support Us
Macdonald-Laurier Institute
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
No Result
View All Result
Macdonald-Laurier Institute

How pandemic modelling failed policy-makers, and how to do better: MLI Commentary by Harvey Schipper

July 9, 2020
in Commentary, COVID-19, Domestic Policy Program, Economic policy, Health, Latest News, Releases
Reading Time: 2 mins read
A A

OTTAWA, ON (July 9, 2020): The existing models for epidemics, which were used to trigger lockdowns around the globe in response to COVID-19, seem to have missed the mark in terms of predicting the spread of the virus and informing good public policy. But why did this happen, and how can policy-makers avoid making the same mistakes?

A new MLI commentary by Dr. Harvey Schipper titled “How pandemic modelling failed policy-makers, and how to do better,” makes the case that modelling has been focused too narrowly on medical knowledge alone.

Schipper, a health policy expert, writes that “the time has come to rethink the concept we call a ‘pandemic.’”

All models, Schipper notes, represent “the necessary oversimplification of reality that enables us to act.” In the case of an epidemic, our model asks two questions: First, what do we know about the vulnerable host? Second, what do we know about the infecting agent?

Current modelling works well when an epidemic is local, and the cause is well understood. However, given these limitations, Schipper argues that COVID-19 created a situation where the model was bound to break.

Moving forward, Schipper calls for epidemic modelling to change in a variety of ways, including:

  • Adding measures that account for all causes of morbidity and mortality. Delayed cancer treatments or heart transplants, for example, may lead to an increase in preventable deaths.
  • Allowing for “external” factors, such as high population density, economic, and educational status, to influence model projections.
  • Creating measures of economic impact to ensure that policies account not only for human health, but also for human well-being.
  • Establishing a lexicon of clear, common, and inter-disciplinary language regarding pandemics to better communicate risks, interventions, and pandemic mitigation efforts.

As Schipper warns, “thinking about pandemics as principally biological phenomena outside their broader context may have made it all worse.”

We don’t know what challenges the next pandemic will bring. Schipper points out that “preparedness is about resilience, the ability to observe with an open mind and adapt.” Developing these capabilities could help Canada become a leader in crucial medical supplies and advanced information technologies needed for fighting pandemics, for example.

But while COVID-19 has exposed gaps in both our models and our societal structure, it has also given us the chance to build better versions of both. “Science provides us with moments of monumental rethinking, when we realize that as good as we’ve been, it is not good enough.” Schipper concludes. “That is the humbling continuous rigorous pursuit of knowledge.”

To learn more about the problems plaguing pandemic modelling and how we can do better for future outbreaks, read the full commentary here.

***

Dr. Harvey Schipper is both an engineer and a physician who has combined disciplines to bring innovation to the health and life sciences sector. His career has bridged five continents as cancer specialist, innovator, health systems designer, businessman and advisor to government. He is currently Professor of Medicine and Adjunct Professor of Law at the University of Toronto.

For more information, media are invited to contact:

Brett Byers
Communications and Digital Media Manager
613-482-8327 x105
brett.byers@macdonaldlaurier.ca

Tags: COVID-19economic policyeconomyHarvey SchipperHealthHealth Policy
Previous Post

Suddenly ‘dead money’ is a dead idea: Philip Cross in the Financial Post

Next Post

Is China’s national security law the end of Hong Kong’s autonomy? Straight Talk with Davin Wong and Alex Lee

Related Posts

Prioritizing gender identity over sex in prisons endangers female prisoners
Releases

Prioritizing gender identity over sex in prisons endangers female prisoners

February 6, 2023
Greedflation? It’s a government thing: Philip Cross in the Financial Post
Columns

Jagmeet Singh uses confusion about private care to support the status quo: Shawn Whatley in the National Post

February 6, 2023
Prioritizing gender identity over sex in prisons endangers female prisoners
Papers

Rights and wrongs: How gender self-identification policy places women at risk in prison

February 6, 2023
Next Post
Is China’s national security law the end of Hong Kong’s autonomy? Straight Talk with Davin Wong and Alex Lee

Is China’s national security law the end of Hong Kong’s autonomy? Straight Talk with Davin Wong and Alex Lee

Macdonald-Laurier Institute

323 Chapel Street, Suite #300
Ottawa, Ontario
K1N 7Z2 Canada

613.482.8327

info@macdonaldlaurier.ca
MLI directory

Follow us on

Newsletter Signup

First Name
Last Name
Email Address

Support Us

Support the Macdonald-Laurier Institute to help ensure that Canada is one of the best governed countries in the world. Click below to learn more or become a sponsor.

Support Us

Inside Policy Magazine

  • Current Issue
  • Back Issues
  • Advertising
  • Inside Policy Blog
  • Privacy Policy

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Energy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.

IDEAS CHANGE THE WORLD!Have the latest Canadian thought leadership delivered straight to your inbox.
First Name
Last Name
Email address

No thanks, I’m not interested.