Saturday, April 1, 2023
No Result
View All Result
  • Media
Support Us
Macdonald-Laurier Institute
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
    • Women’s History Month Fundraiser
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Energy Policy Program
      • Energy
      • Environment
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Competition Policy in Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Annual Reports
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
    • Women’s History Month Fundraiser
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Energy Policy Program
      • Energy
      • Environment
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Competition Policy in Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Annual Reports
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media
No Result
View All Result
Macdonald-Laurier Institute

Fundamentals for robust long-term growth elusive for Canadian economy: Quarterly economic report by Philip Cross

March 20, 2017
in Commentary, Latest News, Leading Economic Indicator, Releases
Reading Time: 2 mins read
A A

Philip CrossBusiness investment and exports remain weak even after positive fourth quarter in 2016

OTTAWA, March 20, 2017 – Household and government spending helped prop up a recovering-but-still-tepid Canadian economy to close out 2016, writes Munk Senior Fellow Philip Cross in his latest quarterly economic update for the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.

Real GDP increased by 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter after a 0.7 percent gain in the third when recovery began from the wildfires in Alberta. Employment growth also picked up to 0.6 percent, fuelled by growth in the public sector.

The growth helped reinforce a second-half turnaround for the Canadian economy after a weak first half of 2016.

However the transition to spending that will prove more fruitful for the long-term recovery of the Canadian economy remains elusive.

“Canada’s economy continues to be overly reliant on growth being provided by household and government, which remain heavily indebted, rather than business investment and exports”, writes Cross.

To read the full commentary, titled “Weak Business Investment, Household and Public Debt Constrain Canada’s Economic Recovery”, click here.

The outlook for business investment remains clouded, as the annual Statistics Canada survey of investment intentions found firms plan to cut capital spending by 5.6 percent. That is a fourth straight decline.

The planned drop for 2017 does not primarily reflect weakness in the energy sector. Instead, investment was pulled down by widespread weakness in most other industries, with cuts planned in 10 of the 13 major industry groups.

Mining, manufacturing, transportation (excluding government investments in urban transit), retailing, and banking all plan important declines. The only gains were in utilities, real estate, and telecommunications.

Investment in manufacturing is a continued source of weakness, with intentions falling 4.6 percent in 2017 to $15.2 billion. That’s a major reason why business investment continues to be poor.

Exports, meanwhile, have risen less than one per cent in the past year.

The housing market in some parts of the country continue to be strong. Prices for existing homes in the Toronto area rose by about 30 percent in the year ending in February. Even in Vancouver, where various measures have cooled demand by 42 percent from a year ago, prices only fell by 3 percent. Households continued to borrow over $40 billion (at annual rates) from the rest of the economy.

Cross’ quarterly economic updates are meant to be a companion item to his monthly Leading Economic Indicator updates.

The Indicator is available on Bloomberg and is intended for journalists and analysts who follow the macro performance of the Canadian economy. Quarterly economic analyses by Cross, based on the results of the indicator, will appear on the MLI website.

To see past Leading Economic Indicators, click here.

***

Philip Cross is a Munk Senior Fellow with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. He previously served as the Chief Economic Analyst for Statistics Canada, part of a 36-year career with the agency.

The Macdonald-Laurier Institute is the only non-partisan, independent national public policy think tank in Ottawa focusing on the full range of issues that fall under the jurisdiction of the federal government.

For more information, please contact Mark Brownlee, communications manager, at 613-482-8327 x105 or email at mark.brownlee@macdonaldlaurier.ca.

Tags: Leading Economic IndicatorPhilip Cross
Previous Post

Great Canadian Debates, Confederation Series highlight Vol. VIII, No. 3 of the MLI newsletter

Next Post

How globalisation bowled over the taxman: Brian Lee Crowley in the Globe and Mail

Related Posts

Does the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline hurt Indigenous people? Yes: Stephen Buffalo in the Toronto Star
Columns

Is Alberta Oil Ethical? Heather Exner-Pirot in Alberta Views

March 31, 2023
Canada’s rising carbon tax, energy prices and the Supreme Court: Andrew Roman for Inside Policy
Inside Policy

Canada’s rising carbon tax, energy prices and the Supreme Court: Andrew Roman for Inside Policy

March 31, 2023
Another found of trade negotiations with the US: How to avoid surprises – Lawrence L. Herman for Inside Policy
Inside Policy

Another found of trade negotiations with the US: How to avoid surprises – Lawrence L. Herman for Inside Policy

March 31, 2023
Next Post
Brian Lee Crowley

How globalisation bowled over the taxman: Brian Lee Crowley in the Globe and Mail

Macdonald-Laurier Institute

323 Chapel Street, Suite #300
Ottawa, Ontario
K1N 7Z2 Canada

613.482.8327

info@macdonaldlaurier.ca
MLI directory

Follow us on

Newsletter Signup

Support Us

Support the Macdonald-Laurier Institute to help ensure that Canada is one of the best governed countries in the world. Click below to learn more or become a sponsor.

Support Us

Inside Policy Magazine

  • Current Issue
  • Back Issues
  • Advertising
  • Inside Policy Blog
  • Privacy Policy

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are
    • Who Makes MLI Work
    • Tenth Anniversary
    • Jobs
    • Women’s History Month Fundraiser
  • Experts
    • Experts Directory
    • In Memoriam
  • Issues
    • Domestic Policy Program
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Canada’s Political Tradition
      • Economic policy
      • Health Care
      • Innovation
      • Justice
      • Social issues
      • Telecoms
    • Energy Policy Program
      • Energy
      • Environment
    • Foreign Policy Program
      • Foreign Affairs
      • National Defence
      • National Security
    • Indigenous Affairs Program
  • Projects
    • COVID and after: A mandate for recovery
    • COVID Misery Index
      • Beyond Lockdown
    • Provincial COVID Misery Index
    • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
      • Dragon at the Door
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
    • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
    • Competition Policy in Canada
    • Speak for Ourselves
    • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • The Transatlantic Program
    • Indigenous Prosperity at a Crossroads
      • Aboriginal Canada and Natural Resources
    • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
    • Past Projects
      • Justice Report Card
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
  • Events
    • Upcoming Events
    • Past Events
      • MLI Dinners
      • Great Canadian Debates
  • Latest News
  • Libraries
    • Annual Reports
    • Inside Policy Magazine
      • Inside Policy Back Issues
      • Inside Policy Blog
    • Papers
    • Columns
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Straight Talk
    • Video
    • Multimedia
    • Podcasts
    • Leading Economic Indicator
    • Labour Market Report
    • MLI in the Media

© 2021 Macdonald-Laurier Institute. All Rights reserved.