This article originally appeared in the National Post.
By Alan Kessel, April 7, 2026
Canada has spent decades searching for a role in the world. Not a slogan or a posture, but a concrete, enduring contribution that secures its relevance among the states that shape economic and military power.
That search is now colliding with reality.
Iran is actively targeting the global energy system. Its campaign against Gulf infrastructure, paired with the weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz, has disrupted one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. Roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes through that narrow channel. Today, it is no longer simply a commercial route; it is a lever of coercion.
The vulnerability of the Persian Gulf is no longer theoretical. It is operational.
This crisis follows the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which exposed Europe’s dependence on Russia for energy, forcing a costly and urgent realignment. Together, these shocks have revealed a structural weakness at the core of the global economy: over-reliance on unstable suppliers and fragile chokepoints.
In that context, Canada’s long-running search for relevance is no longer abstract. It is immediate.
Middle powers do not sustain influence through rhetoric. They do so by delivering capabilities that matter to the system — reliably, and at scale. Canada has too often substituted narrative for strategy, leaning on legacy identities while underdeveloping the hard assets that confer relevance: energy infrastructure, export capacity and strategic foresight.
Energy is the clearest example.
When Olaf Scholz came to Canada in 2022 seeking alternatives to Russian gas, he was offering more than a bilateral opportunity. It was an invitation for Canada to anchor itself within a reconfigured Western energy architecture.
Canada declined — politely, but decisively.
The rationale was familiar: no immediate business case, insufficient infrastructure and long timelines. All true. And all the product of accumulated policy choices that prioritized process over positioning and deferred the development of national capacity.
This was not simply a missed opportunity. It was a failure of strategic intent.
At the very moment the Western alliance sought to reduce dependence on Russia and hedge against instability in the Gulf, Canada was unable to respond, not for lack of resources, but for lack of preparation. The result was not neutrality, but absence.
That absence is not confined to export markets. It is reflected in Canada’s own internal vulnerabilities. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Line 5 pipeline — a critical conduit supplying energy to central Canada through the United States — underscores the fragility of a system in which even domestic energy security depends on external decisions. A country that cannot guarantee the resilience of its own supply lines is poorly positioned to support those of its allies.
Others have acted with greater clarity. The United States expanded LNG exports at speed. Qatar reinforced its role as a global supplier. European states accelerated infrastructure development under pressure. They understood a simple proposition: energy is not just a commodity; it is leverage.
Canada, by contrast, remains caught between competing impulses — treating energy as both an asset and a liability, advancing climate ambitions without embedding them in a coherent geopolitical framework, and avoiding the trade-offs required to build capacity.
The consequence is drift.
Yet the path forward is neither complex nor out of reach. Canada can position itself as a foundational energy partner within the Western alliance — a reliable supplier during the transition, a developer of emerging fuels and a stabilizing force in an increasingly volatile global market. That role would generate economic returns, but more importantly, it would restore strategic relevance.
Doing so requires a shift in mindset: from constraint management to capacity building, from declaratory policy to execution, from short-term equilibrium to long-term positioning.
This is not a call to abandon climate ambition. It is a call to integrate it with geopolitical reality. A world in which adversaries control energy flows is neither secure nor conducive to an orderly transition.
Success in international affairs flows from vision, foresight and a clear understanding of one’s place in the system. Countries that possess those attributes shape events. Those that do not are shaped by them.
Canada has the resources, the stability and the alliances to matter.
What it needs now is the decision to act like it.
Alan H. Kessel served in the roles of assistant deputy minister for legal affairs and legal adviser at Global Affairs Canada. He headed the Canadian legal team suing Iran for the downing of Ukrainian Airlines PS752. He is now a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
