This article originally appeared in the Japan Times.
By Stephen Nagy, June 24, 2024
Last week, Vladimir Putin visited his authoritarian comrade, Kim Jong Un, in North Korea. It has been a long, long time since he last made the trip — some 24 years.
This suggests that North Korea and Russia have not been aligned on global politics for most of the last two decades. However, contemporary events and converging interests have brought them closer together, much like the James Bond film title, “From Russia with Love.”
Putin is losing international prestige amid his botched invasion of Ukraine, an attempt to incorporate a sovereign neighbor into his vision of a modern-day Russian Empire. What was expected to be a lightning strike lasting just under a week has turned into a prolonged quagmire, with Russia losing tens of thousands of men and vast amounts of military resources and hardware.
One cannot help but to compare Russia’s current predicament to the Soviet failure in Afghanistan.
The aligning of interests between Pyongyang and Moscow, both isolated in the international community, falls into four areas.
First, they are both seeking allies, diplomatically and militarily, as well as resources. North Korea’s isolation stems from its decadeslong pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and illegal nuclear weapons testing, as well as its serial human rights abuses.
Russia’s problems began with its illegal invasion of Ukraine. This action has led to diplomatic isolation, exclusion from the international financial system and the loss of access to lucrative energy and resource markets. Although Russia continues to sell to China, India and other regions, it does so at heavily discounted prices.
As one European diplomat said at an event celebrating the 25th anniversary of the expansion of the EU in Tokyo, “Russia will now never be welcome into the family of the EU nor will Europe ever rely on Russian energy and resources again.”
Second, the Russian leader’s visit to Pyongyang is aimed at securing much-needed munitions for his troops fighting in Ukraine. Despite reconfiguring the economy to produce armaments for Putin’s “special military operations in Ukraine,” Russia cannot compete with the collective resources of the U.S., the EU, NATO and other steadfast supporters of Ukraine, such as Japan, South Korea and Australia.
At the same time, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is hoping to secure satellite-launching technologies and other advancements to refine, master and increase the production of his weapons of mass destruction.
This is a concern for Japan, South Korea and the U.S., as North Korea is pursuing a missile saturation strategy aimed at overwhelming anti-ballistic missile systems in the region, according to Japanese security analysts Musashi Murano and Yoko Iwama. Pyongyang’s strategy is intended to give it leverage in future negotiations.
Third, both countries are aligning with other authoritarian states such as China and Iran, as well as nonstate actors like Hamas, to fundamentally disrupt the current international order. Their collective goal is to undermine democracy, human rights and transparency and to hinder the functioning of international institutions. These institutions and ideas are the bedrock of the peace, prosperity and development that the global community has benefited from since World War II. Their goal is to rewrite the so-called software governing the international order to favor illiberal authoritarian states.
Fourth, Putin and Kim see an opportunity in the wake of the recent Swiss Peace Conference to pressure the U.S., Western Europe and supporters of Ukraine. They hope to align their capabilities to create disruptive forces that distract, weaken and complicate the efforts of the U.S. and its Western allies in supporting Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s illegal war, as well as countering actions by other states.
Pyongyang and Moscow’s strategy is to align their interests on the Korean Peninsula in order to hinder U.S. deployments of resources to Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait and elsewhere.
The timing is not random. Moscow, Pyongyang, Beijing and Tehran all view the elections in the United States as a prime opportunity to align their diplomacy in a way that takes advantage of a weak White House, a potential Trump presidency and what they see as a divided American public.
All four governments should consider the U.S.’ capacity to reinvent itself in times of strife, ultimately strengthening its domestic and foreign policies, making them more cohesive and competitive. They should also reflect on the lessons from World War I and World War II where America entered both conflicts in the later stages but then mobilized its full resources to overcome challenges to the existing global order.
Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan are both examples of past challengers to the international system that no longer exist. In fact, the U.S. played a pivotal role in their defeat during World War II and in their subsequent rehabilitation as respected members of the international community. These countries now lead efforts to promote an international order based on the rule of law and resist authoritarian states seeking to revise regional and global orders.
The “cartel of chaos” as the Ukrainian ambassador to Japan often calls them, has yet to face the full might of U.S. global power and reach.
The Lowy Institute’s annual Asian Power Index underscores the U.S.’ significant global and Indo-Pacific regional influence. Other assessments of comprehensive power, including diplomatic prowess, alliances, influence in global financial and other institutions similarly indicate that the United States has not fully mobilized its resources to effectively compete against the authoritarian challengers to global order.
While the Russian leaders’ visit to Pyongyang may provide short-term benefits in terms of supplying munitions to his forces in Ukraine, it’s important to emphasize that the U.S., along with its Group of Seven partners and like-minded countries, will oppose any attempt to alter the foundational principles of our international order based on the rule of law. Such alterations, pursued through a Machiavellian “might-is-right” approach to international relations, will be resisted.
The G7 has committed resources, financial support and diplomatic capital to aid Ukraine in resisting Russia’s invasion. The group also continues to issue strong statements regarding China’s revisionist ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region and unification with Taiwan.
The increasing alignment between Moscow, Tehran, Beijing and Pyongyang will only prompt deeper cooperation among the U.S. and its allies to uphold the current international order based on rule of law. Any attempt to outcompete the U.S. and like-minded countries risks destabilizing global peace, prosperity and security. Engaging in a 21st-century game of “Russian Roulette” by those seeking to forcefully change the international order will not bring stability or benefit to Russia or any other authoritarian state.
Stephen Nagy is a professor at the department of politics and international studies at the International Christian University and a Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
