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Macdonald-Laurier Institute

Housing and US economy key for Canada’s current economic growth: MLI’s Leading Economic Indicator

February 1, 2018
in Latest News, Leading Economic Indicator, Housing, In the Media, Philip Cross
Reading Time: 2 mins read
A A

Philip CrossHousing and a strong US economy have helped to maintain Canadian economic growth in recent months, writes Munk Senior Fellow Philip Cross in MLI’s latest Leading Economic Indicator.

OTTAWA, ON (Feb. 1, 2018): Canada’s economic growth increased in November. The Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Leading Economic Indicator, a tool designed to predict changes in the Canadian business cycle, rose by 0.5 percent in December, matching its gain the month before.

The upturn of the index signals that the second half slowdown in Canada’s economic growth may be temporary. However, the largest turnaround was in the housing component, which rose 3.1 percent in November and 1.9 percent in December after subsiding for five straight months over the summer.

“Existing home sales led these gains,” says Munk Senior Fellow Philip Cross, the author of the LEI, “as borrowers rushed to close sales before new federal regulations tighten lending standards on January 1.”

The leading index is designed to signal an upcoming turn in the business cycle, either from growth to recession or from recession to recovery, six months in advance, with an error rate of less than five percent. It does so by monitoring what businesses and households have actually committed to in terms of future spending and production in the most cyclically-sensitive sectors of the economy. It also incorporates global influences such as the direction of the US economy and the broad thrust of monetary policy.

“A more sustainable source of growth appears to be the US economy,” added Cross. The leading index for the US rose by 0.7 percent, bolstered by industrial demand which has replaced consumer sentiment as the driving force of growth in recent months.

Rising international demand also boosted commodity prices and resource stocks in Canada’s stock market. So far, Canada’s manufacturing sector has benefited little from stronger US demand, with new orders down for the fourth time in six months.

To learn more about the leading economic indicator, click here.

For more information media are invited to contact:

Cole Hogan
Communications Manager
613-482-8327 x105
cole.hogan@macdonaldlaurier.ca

 

Tags: Philip CrossLeading Economic Indicator

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  • Home
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    • Tenth Anniversary
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      • Health Care
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      • Media and Telecoms
      • Housing
      • Immigration
      • Agriculture and Agri-Food
      • Competition Policy
    • Energy Policy
      • Energy
      • Environment
    • Foreign Policy
      • Israel-Hamas War
      • Ukraine
      • Taiwan
      • China
      • Europe and Russia
      • Indo-Pacific
      • Middle East and North Africa
      • North America
      • Foreign Interference
      • National Defence
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      • Foreign Affairs
    • Indigenous Affairs
  • Projects
    • CNAPS (Center for North American Prosperity and Security)
    • The Promised Land
    • Voices that Inspire: The Macdonald-Laurier Vancouver Speaker Series
    • Dragon at the Door
    • Canada on top of the world
    • Justice Report Card
    • The Great Energy Crisis
    • DisInfoWatch.org
    • Double Trouble
    • Digital Policy & Connectivity
    • Managing Indigenous Prosperity
    • Defending The Marketplace of Ideas
    • Reforming the University
    • Past Projects
      • Canada and the Indo-Pacific Initiative
      • The Transatlantic Program
      • COVID Misery Index
      • Speak for Ourselves
      • The Eavesdropping Dragon: Huawei
      • Talkin’ in the Free World with Mariam Memarsadeghi
      • An Intellectual Property Strategy for Canada
      • Munk Senior Fellows
      • A Mandate for Canada
      • Confederation Series
      • Fiscal Reform
      • The Canadian Century project
      • Fixing Canadian health care
      • Internal trade
      • From a mandate for change
      • Size of government in Canada
      • Straight Talk
      • Labour Market Report
      • Leading Economic Indicator
      • Centre for Advancing Canada’s Interests Abroad
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