By John Gilmour, September 11, 2024
When jihadist terrorists hijacked civilian airliners and slammed them into the Twin Towers and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, it sent shockwaves around the world. In Canada, like in other Western democracies, people seemed to finally awaken to the threat of Islamic terrorism.
Twenty-three years later, Canada’s national security and law-enforcement agencies are facing a disturbing question: after years of relatively benign activity, is jihadist-motivated violence on the rise in our country? A string of recent events suggests that, unfortunately, the answer is yes.
Identifying the threat
While the public was generally aware of Islamic terrorism prior to 9/11, al-Qaeda’s attacks brought the threat sharply into focus. Since then, this brand of terror has gone by many monikers. “Traditionalists” refer to it as “Islamist,” “Salafist,” or “jihadist” terrorism. They cite the fact many of these terror groups actually have the term “jihad” or “Islam” in their names (the various affiliates of the so-called Islamic State are probably the best-known).
Others, who believe that the terminology characterizes the threat too narrowly or lacks sensitivity towards certain communities, refer to it with more ambiguous terms, such as “religiously motivated violent extremism” (RMVE) or, more recently, “international terrorism extremism.”
Semantics aside, for more than fifteen years after 2001, Canada’s national security policies, strategies, and programs focused on the threat of jihadist-motivated extremism. National security and law enforcement agencies investigated threats posed by individuals who – driven by extremist narratives – were prepared to engage in violence or facilitate attacks. The investigation and arrest of the “Toronto 18” is among the best-known cases.
Globally, and as part of its broader post 9/11 counter-terrorism response, Canada maintained its decades-long security strategy of keeping the threat as far away from its shores as possible. For example, Canada contributed significantly to the International Security Assistance Force’s (ISAF) efforts in Afghanistan against Al-Qaeda and the Taliban; it joined the US-led coalition forces against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and provided capacity building assistance to countries that requested material or training support as part of their own respective counter-terrorism efforts. The opaque nature of “transnational terrorism” forced Canadian agencies to regularly work with global partners in support of both high-level counter-terrorism strategies and individual investigations.
Thanks to these efforts, Canadian law enforcement has charged close to sixty people for jihadist or RMVE terrorism offences under Canada’s Criminal Code. Three others – Michael Zehaf-Bibeau, Aaron Driver, and Martin Couture-Rouleau – were not charged as they were fatally shot in the conduct of their attacks).
During post-arrest interviews, most people charged with terrorism offences in Canada claimed to be motivated by the country’s foreign policy. They condemned Canada for being too “pro-Israel,” or for taking part in Western military counter-terrorism operations in South and Central Asia that they believed indiscriminately targeted Muslim populations.
Diminishing concerns and shifting priorities
As years passed, the threat of jihadist terrorism in Canada gradually receded into the background – surfacing occasionally in the media when an attack was successful, or when intelligence and law-enforcement agencies successfully thwarted planned attacks.
Fortunately, planned or successful attacks were typically ad-hoc (i.e. not part of any sustained or organized strategy), amateurish, and infrequent, with generally little impacts on broader society. As a result, the public generally grew more confident in security and law-enforcement agencies to keep them safe from radical jihadism.
However, after more than a decade of focusing almost exclusively on the jihadist-motivated threat, national security and law-enforcement practitioners and policy-makers within Canada and the US began to redefine the scope and nature of what constituted “terrorism.”
This occurred even as the Islamic State reached the peak of its geographic occupation of sections of Syria and Iraq in 2015, and despite the fact that jihadist-motivated terrorism, when considered from a global perspective, was (and still remains) the dominant terrorist threat in terms of the number of attacks and associated lethality.
Despite this, US law enforcement and security agencies began to shift their concern, and attention, to the spread of extreme right-wing or white supremacist violence in that country. A succession of high-profile attacks – Charleston in 2015, Pittsburgh in 2018, and El Paso in 2019 – motivated by extreme right wing narratives, highlighted the threat. A 2021 report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies organization (CSIS, based in Washington, DC – not to be confused with the Canadian security agency) indicated 94 per cent of recent terrorist incidents in the US were linked to what it defined as “domestic terrorism,” while jihadist-based attacks amounted to only five percent. In October 2020, the Department of Homeland Security stated for the first time that domestic violent extremists, rather than “foreign terrorist organizations,” were the most persistent and lethal threat to the nation.
In Canada, national security practitioners and academics noticed this shift in the US and began to move beyond a jihadist-centric focus when identifying trending terrorism threats to the security of our country (examples of these threats include the Quebec Mosque shooting of January 2017 and the allegedly incel-inspired vehicular attack in Toronto in April 2018).
In 2018, the federal government released a report titled 2018 Report on the Terrorism Threat in Canada. While referencing the emerging threat from “right-wing extremist views” and “extremists who support violent means to establish an independent state within India” (i.e., Sikh nationalism), it still focused primarily on religiously motivated terrorism – specifically referencing al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and its affiliates, the Taliban, and Hezbollah. Ottawa has yet to update its 2018 report.
In 2019, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) published Threats to the Security of Canada and Canadian Interests. The document generally supported the shift in American narratives away from strictly jihadist-based terrorist threats. CSIS annual reports from 2020 forward also tended to focus on the threat posed by “Ideologically Motivated Violent Extremism” (IMVE), which includes in part what would commonly be termed right-wing or left-wing terrorism.
There are several possible reasons for the change, including a lack of jihadist-motivated attacks, successfully sustained mitigation, disruption of the jihadist-terrorist threat by government agencies, and even a need by Canadian officials to be seen as mimicking American narratives on terrorism.
Ultimately, governments, institutions, and even Canadians themselves began to see jihadist-motivated terrorism as an increasingly diminished threat. Other challenges captured our attention: state-on-state conflicts, foreign interference, cyber threats, and hybrid or gray-zone warfare consumed the attention and resources of our national security agencies. The emergence of non-traditional security issues such as a need to secure key supply chains, or ensure environmental and health security, has pushed terrorism even further down our national security hierarchy.
Jihadist terrorism returns with a vengeance
And then came Hamas’s vicious terror attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023.
The ongoing war between Hamas and Israel seems to have inspired a resurgence of jihadi-motivated terrorism against the West. National security agencies are raising concerns about spikes in xenophobic-based threats to both Jewish and Muslim communities in terms of both “mischief” and “incitement” offences as defined as in the Criminal Code. An even greater concern is that jihadist or religiously motivated terrorist groups, their affiliates, or their disciples will use the Gaza conflict to encourage attacks against Western targets in the West while also recruiting more adherents.
On October 31, 2023, FBI Director Christopher Wray told the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs, “We assess that the actions of Hamas and its allies will serve as an inspiration the likes of which we haven’t seen since ISIS launched its so-called caliphate years ago. In just the past few weeks, multiple foreign terrorist organizations have called for attacks against Americans and the West.” In its 2023 annual report (Mission Focused: Confronting the Threat Environment), the Canadian Security Intelligence Service noted that IMVE-motivated terrorism within Canada remained a prime threat, religiously motivated attacks in particular would likely rise in 2024. “CSIS assesses inspired attacks across the globe will continue during 2024, at an unpredictable pace, related in part to world events… [and] charismatic RMVE leaders in Canada continue to use international events to amplify their propaganda to radicalize and recruit vulnerable individuals while encouraging both domestic acts of violence and international travel to conflict zones.”
Since the October 7 Hamas terror attacks, Europe has seen a disturbing rise in religiously motivated terror-related arrests, with nearly two-thirds of the cases since October 2023 involving teenagers. At the time of writing, the most recent example involved a knife attack in late August in Solingen, Germany, that killed three people and wounded eight. The suspect, a 26-year-old Syrian immigrant, was allegedly inspired by Islamic State ideology.
The attack took place less than three months after a similar attack in Manheim, an ethnically diverse city in the country’s west, just over 200 kilometres south of Solingen. In that case, a knife-wielding Afghan refugee allegedly attacked a crowd gathered for an anti-immigrant rally, killing a police officer who tried to intervene.
Still in Germany, police foiled a terrorist plot targeting the Euro 2024 soccer tournament hours before the final game between England and Spain. And, of course, there was the high-profile Islamic State-inspired attack in Moscow in March of this year, and the cancellation of Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna in August due to a threat from jihadist-motivated, Islamic State-inspired terrorists aged 19 and 17 years of age. The suspects in the foiled plot reportedly sought to kill “tens of thousands” of fans before the CIA discovered intelligence that disrupted the planning and led to arrests, according to the agency’s deputy director.
Terror on the home front?
Closer to home, Canadians are increasingly concerned about the threat of rising jihadist-inspired terrorism.
Prior to ongoing Hamas-Israel war, Canadian authorities had charged only a handful of individuals for jihadist-motivated terrorism. Recent cases include a knife attack by an ISIL adherent in British Columbia and an instance of incitement/recruitment in support of terrorism in Montreal (both events happened in 2023). But within the past two months alone, there have been five separate incidents where Canadians or people with domicile in Canada have either launched jihadist-motivated attacks or been involved in their planning. On July 22, 2024, a Canadian citizen armed with a knife attempted to attack an armed civilian security unit southern Israel near the Gaza border. Authorities killed the assailant during the attack. The following day, a court in the United Kingdom convicted Khaled Hussein, a Canadian citizen living in Edmonton, of being a member of the Al-Muhajiroun – a proscribed group under the UK’s Terrorism Act. And a week later, the RCMP arrested Ahmed Fouad Mostafa Eldidi, 62, and his son, Mostafa Eldidi, 26, near Toronto. The pair now face nine different terrorism charges, including conspiracy to commit murder on behalf of the Islamic State. The latter case has also raised questions regarding how the elder Eldidi specifically gained access to Canada after being allegedly identified in a 2015 video depicting the dismemberment of an Islamic State prisoner. This case is currently before the courts.
On August 22, 2024, authorities laid terror charges against a young offender in the Greater Toronto Area for inciting terrorism. Little information has emerged regarding the particulars of that investigation. Finally, on September 4, 2024, authorities arrested Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, a Pakistani national residing in Toronto, and charged him with allegedly planning a terrorist attack against a synagogue in New York city. Authorities caught him as he tried to cross the Canada-US border. With the arrest coming so close to the anniversary of 9/11, it’s possible that US lawmakers and officials may use the incident to hammer Canada for being too lax on security and immigration screening.
Is the Gaza conflict fuelling the sudden flaring of jihadist-motivated terrorism with Canadian connections? If so, will the threat subside when and if the conflict in Gaza is ultimately resolved? Or will the threat continue over the upcoming months and years in something of a “Back to the Future” post-9/11 scenario?
Time will tell. But clearly – contrary to the opinions of some terrorism “experts” – the threat of jihadist-motivated terrorism in Canada has not dissipated.
Fortunately, the recent rise in jihadist-motivated attacks have not yet claimed any lives or resulted in any injury. This is in part due to the experience and diligence of national security and law enforcement agencies in Canada, which have a commendable record in mitigating and disrupting jihadist-motivated attacks.
However, history shows that a motivated and determined singular terrorist is quite capable of mayhem, “amateurish” as the planning and attack may be.
If the frequency or lethality jihadist-motivated attacks in Canada rises significantly, then senior policy-makers will be forced to enact the necessary policy, strategy and program measures to counter the growing threat. At the same time, Canada’s national security and law enforcement agencies will need to remain vigilant. As noted in Canada’s one and only national security policy of 2004, “There can be no greater role, no more important obligation for a government, than the protection and safety of its citizens.” Let’s hope there is a clear understanding on the part of senior decision makers of what this obligation entails when it comes to the threat and risk posed by jihadist-motivated terrorism in Canada.
John Gilmour, Ph.D., is an instructor on terrorism, counterterrorism, and intelligence, with the University of Ottawa’s Professional Development Institute and Carleton University’s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs. He served for 37 years in the federal government, with Transport Canada, the security and intelligence (operations) section of the Privy Council Office, and the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS), most recently as the head of strategic planning and operational analysis in the counterterrorism division. Gilmour currently serves as the president of the Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies.
