By Alexander Dalziel
November 12, 2024
Executive Summary
If a NATO-Russia confrontation is coming, it could very well start in the European Arctic.
Canada, as an Arctic neighbour and NATO ally, should act quickly to develop closer partnerships with the three countries that govern that slice of the Arctic: Norway, Finland, and Sweden. They are key allies in countering threats, and not just Russia’s, to our collective security.
These Nordic countries are on the front lines and understand that Russia is a real threat to their future and to global security, including in the Arctic. They understand the implications of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and campaign of clandestine war in Europe as a fact that must be faced directly. Similarly, because of the People’s Republic of China (PRC’s) support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, and its espionage, coercive behaviours, and interference activities in Europe, the Nordic nations are wary of the PRC’s increased Arctic presence.
Thankfully, Finland and Sweden both recently joined Norway in NATO. This makes the European Arctic more secure. Finland, Sweden, and Norway bring strong, coherent, and credible defence and security contributions to NATO and its “northern flank.” The emergence of a Nordic geopolitical bloc, in part shaped by its portion of the Arctic, is of the utmost significance to Canada, a NATO ally and polar neighbour.
Norway, Sweden, and Finland are now aligned with each other and the US on defence. They are active in regional security initiatives in the North Atlantic, the North Sea and the Baltic Sea and they are rapidly ramping up defence spending. The US is taking note of this exemplary behaviour. Canada should look to these nations for a clear guide on how to succeed in investing in defence and meeting obligations to our allies.
Beyond defence, the European Arctic is also economically significant to the broader democratic world. Norway (not an EU member but a close trading partner), Sweden, and Finland are potentially decisive contributors to the EU’s energy and high-tech sectors. The EU’s efforts to shore up strategic supply chains will hinge on developing Norway, Sweden, and Finland’s mining sector. The most significant deposits are often in the northernmost territories. These three countries may become natural resource players of disproportionate importance to the EU, North America and globally.
There are several ways Canada should work with Norway, Sweden, and Finland for mutual benefit, through NATO and through closer economic co-operation. Together Canada and these three countries, in concert with other allies such as the US and Germany, have the potential to counter both China’s efforts to dominate the mining of critical minerals and Russia’s efforts to dominate its neighbours.
Savvy Canadian policy must recognize the value of comprehensive collaboration with the countries of the European Arctic and the other Nordic countries of Denmark and Iceland. Canada’s recent proposal to pull together the democratic Arctic countries to talk about Arctic security is an excellent step forward but follow-through is a must.
For the sake of our national security, the defence of our territory and our values, Canadians must ensure that their government moves from talk to action; the time for strategic collaboration with Norway, Sweden, and Finland is now.
