This article is extracted from a report on Russian disinformation narratives published by DisinfoWatch.
Overview
Since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, the Kremlin has steadily intensified its information warfare targeting Ukraine, NATO and the Western democratic world, both inside and outside of Russia using foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI).
Over the past decade, the primary objectives of Russian FIMI and influence operations are to:
- Erode public support for Ukraine and NATO;
- Undermine unity among NATO allies;
- Discredit and intimidate governments, communities, journalists and activists that are critical of the Kremlin;
- Exploit existing divisions within democratic societies in order to undermine social cohesion and trust in our governments, media and civil society.
The Kremlin narratives that we tested are those that regularly feature on Russian state controlled media platforms like RT, Sputnik and in statements by the Russian government, officials and diplomats.
They include:
- “Financial aid sent to Ukraine is being pocketed by corrupt officials within the Ukrainian government.”
- “Weapons we send to help Ukraine defend itself are just being sold on the black market instead.”
- “Ukraine and NATO are the ones who started the war with Russia.”
- “Russia is at war because it is trying to defend itself from Ukrainian Nazis.”:
- “Russia is going to win eventually, so sending aid to Ukraine is only delaying the inevitable.”
- “Ukraine should give up their eastern territory for peace since the people living there are Russian anyway.”
Research has demonstrated that these narratives are amplified inside western societies, including Canada, by regime aligned influencers, who may or may not receive benefit from doing so, targeting audiences on both ends of the political spectrum. The reach of these influencers on social media is not limited by borders. Canadian audiences are exposed to content posted by influencers in Canada, the US and beyond.
Polling of Americans who identify as conservatives, has demonstrated a likely vulnerability to Russian government narratives which may correlate with a dramatic decrease in support for Ukraine among right leaning Republicans voters.
A May 2024 Pew Research report about US public support for Ukraine found a growing partisan gap between Republican and Democrat voters over the course of the war. Polling during the first months of the war found that just 9% of Republican voters believed that the United States was providing too much aid to Ukraine. That number increased to 49% in April 2024. In the same timeframe, Democrats who believed that the US is giving too much aid to Ukraine increased from 7% to 31%. The same Pew report also found that 55% of Republicans lacked confidence in President Zelenskyy, in contrast to 65% of Democrats who said they are confident in Ukraine’s president.
Similar trends have been observed in Canada. A February 2024 Angus Reid poll found that the number of Conservative voters who believed that Canada is giving too much to Ukraine doubled from 19% in May 2022 to 43%.
While multiple domestic and geopolitical factors may have influenced these results, the impact of Russian information and influence operations on public opinion should also be considered.
Our analysis aims to assess Canadian public vulnerabilities to each of the key Russian FIMI narratives above, across the Canadian political spectrum.
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