This article originally appeared in the Globe and Mail.
By Marcus Kolga, January 27, 2025
This Sunday, Alexander Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus will stage another sham election: a predictable farce designed to preserve the illusion of legitimacy for one of the world’s most deeply entrenched and vicious dictatorships.
But unlike in 2020, the streets of Minsk are likely to remain quiet afterward – a telling indictment of the brutal repression that has happened over the last five years, and which demands opposition from the West.
The 2020 presidential election in Belarus, and the peaceful protests that followed, was a watershed moment. After decades of authoritarian rule, millions took to the streets to demand free and fair elections, justice and an end to corruption. In response, the regime falsified the election results, declared Mr. Lukashenko the winner with an implausible 80 per cent of the vote and unleashed an unprecedented campaign of violence to silence dissent. The regime’s brutality, documented by journalists, human rights organizations and Western governments, shocked the world. Peaceful protesters were abducted, beaten and tortured. At least four were killed, including Alyaksandr Taraykouski, who was shot in the chest while approaching police with his hands raised.
In the election’s aftermath, the repression intensified. Security forces detained more than 30,000 people. Reports of ill treatment were widespread, with detainees subjected to torture, sexual abuse and psychological terror in overcrowded detention centres like the infamous Okrestina facility. Opposition presidential candidate (considered president-elect by many Western nations) Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya went into exile with her children. Her husband Syarhei was detained and sentenced to 18 years in prison. Independent journalists faced arrests, harassment and the closure of media outlets.
But don’t confuse Belarus’s likely quiet for a lack of yearning for freedom; the courage of Belarus’s pro-democracy activists and journalists, whether at home or abroad, remains undiminished. Their struggle is not only essential for their nation – it is part of the broader, collective battle against rising authoritarianism and for defending democracy and freedom in Europe and throughout the democratic world.
People outside Belarus are affected, too. The Lukashenko regime continues to target thousands of Belarusian journalists and activists in exile for daring to continue reporting and speaking out. The regime leverages surveillance, threats and legal tools to intimidate critics living outside the country. A stark example is the case of journalist Hanna Liubakova, sentenced in absentia to 10 years in prison in 2024 for her reporting. Her work, which sheds light on the regime’s abuses and amplifies the voices of those fighting for freedom, has made her a significant target of Mr. Lukashenko’s campaign of transnational repression.
The regime’s repression has only intensified over the past year leading up to Sunday’s staged farce. Opposition leader and 2010 presidential candidate Andrei Sannikov told us during a visit to Toronto earlier this month that while some prisoners have been released, just as many, if not more, are arrested to replace them. Mr. Sannikov said that there are at least 10,000 political prisoners in Belarus today.
Mr. Lukashenko’s dictatorship survives because he has transformed Belarus into a submissive client state of Russia. To remain in power, he has ceded Belarus’s independence in exchange for Vladimir Putin’s backing of his regime, allowing Russian forces to use Belarusian territory to launch the brutal invasion of Ukraine.
The West must recognize that the pathway to a durable and lasting peace in Europe demands the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty, and thus, the liberation of Belarus from Russian domination and Alexander Lukashenko’s tyranny. A democratic Belarus would sever one of Mr. Putin’s key lifelines, denying him a critical platform for military aggression, weakening his grip on the region and demonstrating to Russians that democratic change is possible.
To achieve this, the West has a moral and strategic imperative to act and offer our unwavering support to Belarusian activists, journalists and civil society organizations, both within the country and in exile. Sanctions against Mr. Lukashenko’s regime and its enablers must be strengthened and enforced. Safe havens and democratic sanctuaries, like those in Lithuania and Poland, should be supported with funding as they take in those who are forced to flee, and independent media outlets must be given the resources they need to continue exposing the regime’s lies and atrocities. The courage of these activists and journalists deserves more than words of solidarity; it demands tangible action.
The stakes are enormous. Belarusian democracy and Ukrainian sovereignty are not just about securing freedom for two nations. They are about securing peace and stability for the European continent – and the Western world.
Marcus Kolga is a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
Rachel Pulfer is president of Journalists for Human Rights.
