This article originally appeared in the Financial Post. Below is an excerpt from the article.
By Jack Mintz, January 19, 2026
In Alberta, various organizations are busy gathering the 177,732 signatures needed by May 2 to hold a referendum on Alberta’s independence. At two Calgary events I participated in last week, most of the 300 attendees were signers.
Yet a Research poll released last week found that 49 per cent of Albertans are strongly opposed to independence while another 13 per cent are moderately opposed — which is a steep hill for the separatists to climb. Even so, the poll is consistent with others in finding a meaningful minority in favour of separation: 31 per cent in this case. Even more surprising, among Albertans aged 18-34, 42 per cent favour separation compared with only 52 per cent against.
If held today a separation referendum would likely fail. But still: 1.25 million out of four million eligible voters say they would opt for separation. Why?
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Jack Mintz is the President’s Fellow at the University of Calgary’s school of public policy and a distinguished fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
