This article originally appeared in the Hamilton Spectator.
By Christopher Coates, October 27, 2025
Canadians must start seriously caring about potential conflict between China and Taiwan, and press their political leaders to act on deterring such an outcome.
Chinese leaders have given a deadline of 2027 to unify China and Taiwan.
A small window may still exist for Canada to play a role in helping reduce the possibility of a cross-strait conflict between the two nations. But this increased effort needs to start with Canadians appreciating the significant impact such a conflict would have on our country.
After a decade devoted to identity politics and policies, Canada now finds itself with a stagnating economy, a military in dire need of rebuilding, and a diminished ability to influence world events that directly impact its citizens.
Our reduced capacity stems from numerous factors — including a failure to appreciate that global events have effects which reach our own shores.
Canadians must realize a conflict between China and Taiwan would be catastrophic for Canada.
The impact of a Chinese invasion — or even blockade — of Taiwan would be felt around the world by governments, citizens, companies, and industries. Experts estimate an attempted invasion would decrease global GDP by 10 per cent, with a blockade having a significant but lesser impact. (For comparison, COVID-19’s impact reached just over three per cent of global GDP).
As noted, these impacts would be immediate, widespread and difficult to reverse.
The direct impact on our shores would result from two primary considerations — semiconductor interruptions and economic shock.
Taiwan is the most significant global manufacturer and supplier of semiconductors. These are integral components of modern electronic devices and electronically-enabled machinery vital to economic and social activity. An interruption of Taiwan’s output would directly impact global supply chains through to Canada.
Manufacturing would slow immediately. Supply and repair would follow quickly thereafter.
The 10 per cent drop in global GDP would lead to recession, causing serious unemployment and inflation, decreased long-term global growth, and significantly diminished Canadian living standards.
Additional effects stemming from the conflict would compound the semiconductor-induced impacts. Foremost would be an interruption of shipping through the Taiwan straits, where $2.45 trillion worth of goods and more than one-fifth of global maritime trade transits, including 30 per cent of all imports to Japan and South Korea.
It’s anticipated that sanctions would be applied against China, halting the supply of “made-in-China” products to Canada.
Estimates vary, but this could affect 20 to 40 per cent of all consumer goods in Canada, significantly disrupting life, slowing activity and crippling the consumer economy.
America would likely be drawn in to a cross-straits conflict, and western democratic nations would muster to aid the U.S. and Taiwan. Economies would shift to wartime profiles, freezing development and other objectives.
The situation would worsen beyond description if regional conflict spiralled into global war — on the one side Russia and China allied with nondemocratic states, and the democracies on the other.
The indirect impacts of China invading or blockading Taiwan would be vast.
The COVID-19 pandemic tragically led to the deaths of more than 50,000 Canadians, but most people living in Canada adjusted to these years of economic, academic, workforce and related disruptions. In today’s interconnected and electronically enabled world, a cross-straits conflict would have a considerably worse and longer lasting impact than COVID-19.
Preventing such a conflict is in Canada’s interests — not simply because war is devastating or because Canadians favour democratic governments — but also to avert the outcomes described above.
Canadians are not passive passengers on the planet. What happens in Taiwan will severely impact them. Canadians must take responsibility for our collective futures, and demand government action.
Canada is dealing with several security-related challenges — including North American continental defences that need modernizing and allies in Europe attempting to deter a combative Russia.
But it’s imperative that Canadians and their government also recognize the dangers of a conflict across the straits of Taiwan, and that Ottawa acts by rapidly providing capabilities and resources to deter China from escalating.
Christopher Coates is the director of foreign policy, national security, and national defence at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
