OTTAWA, ON (November 12, 2025):
Some Canadian policymakers dismiss public concern over rising crime as unfounded fearmongering. The evidence tells a different story.
A new Macdonald-Laurier Institute report reveals that violent crime is surging at a disturbing rate, with urban centres in the prairies seeing particularly alarming increases. Even smaller and typically safer cities aren’t immune from rising rates of homicide, sexual assaults, aggravated assaults, and robbery. These are not isolated events, but part of a troubling national trend that demands immediate attention from policymakers.
In the Urban Violent Crime Report, Volume 2: Comparing crime across Canadian cities, Senior Fellows and criminal justice experts Dave Snow and Rick Audas expand on a previous report to include data from 20 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) across nine provinces, representing over 65 per cent of the Canadian population.
Their findings paint a stark picture:
1. Violent crime has risen across nearly all major urban centres. Every CMA except one saw an increase in both the violent crime rate and the violent crime severity index over the last decade.
2. Sexual assault has surged dramatically. Rates are up across all 20 CMAs, with some cities experiencing a doubling of reported incidents since 2015.
3. The Prairies are in crisis. Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, and Edmonton have violent crime rates roughly twice as high as other large CMAs, with Winnipeg standing out as an outlier across multiple categories.
4. Violence is spreading to smaller cities. Mid-sized and smaller CMAs like Halifax, Kitchener, Moncton, and St. John’s are now matching – or even surpassing – larger cities in violent crime growth.
5. Even “safe” cities are no longer safe. Regions once considered low-crime, including Windsor, Quebec City, and Gatineau, have all recorded significant increases in violent offences since 2015.
For Snow and Audas, these findings confirm the urgent need for evidence-based public safety reforms. Both applaud the emerging bipartisan and cross-provincial consensus on bail reform, including a pledge during the 2025 election by Liberals and Conservatives to strengthen bail laws. But that is just the start: more comprehensive criminal justice reforms are needed to make Canada’s cities safe for their citizens.
“The evidence is clear… violent crime in Canada’s cities has grown more severe, more widespread, and more national in scope. Policymakers can no longer deny the urgency of the problem” write Snow and Audas.
“Recognizing the reality of urban violent crime is the first step toward developing the solutions that will make Canadians safer
To learn more, read the full paper here
Dave Snow is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Guelph and a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
Richard Audas is a professor of Health Statistics and Economics in the Faculty of Medicine at Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador and is a senior research fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute
Skander Belouizdad
