This article was published by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Washington office, the Center for North American Prosperity and Security (CNAPS.org). It originally appeared in The Hill. The full article can be read here.
By Jamie Tronnes, December 11, 2024
President-elect Donald Trump has shaken the Canadian political establishment with his recent post threatening to enact a 25 percent tariff on all goods coming into the U.S.
The provincial premiers, already hearing earfuls from worried business leaders, immediately called for a meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to answer questions about how Canada was planning to respond.
The USMCA free trade deal was due to be reviewed in 2026. As such, both Canada and Mexico have had teams working behind the scenes strategizing the best way to handle the review. Trump has just thrown a spanner in the wheels of those plans, by essentially threatening to rip up the trade agreement his own administration negotiated.
Until recently, the question in Canada was whether or not to pursue a renewal of the USMCA trilaterally, or whether Canada might be better off going it alone and aiming to secure its place in a bilateral agreement with the U.S. Certainly, reviewing an agreement is preferable to starting anew, but now Canada may not get a say in the matter. If Trump does impose tariffs, USMCA is effectively dead in the water.
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Jamie Tronnes is executive director of the Center for North American Prosperity and Security, a project of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute. She is based in Washington.
