This article originally appeared in the Financial Post. Below is an excerpt from the article.
By Jack Mintz, May 8, 2026
In its fiscal update, the Carney government repeats almost ad nauseum the IMF’s projection that Canada will have the second highest real GDP growth rate among G7 countries this year, at 1.5 per cent. What the update doesn’t emphasize is that the United States, our most important trading partner by far, will grow 2.3 per cent — i.e., half again faster than Canada. And because the U.S. accounts for three-fifths of the G7’s total GDP, a better way to think about Canada’s growth is that it’s in the bottom half of the G7 — not really something to be so proud of.
When growth is the subject, Japan and Europe are a very low bar. Our growth rate is only one-half the world’s rate. Large countries like China, India and Brazil are much more dynamic. Our growth trails both the advanced-country average (1.8 per cent) and the rate for every other world region — rich or poor – except the European Union (1.3 per cent).
That same IMF 2026 projection also shows how much our standard of living has slipped, especially relative to the U.S. The IMF’s projection for Canada’s per capita GDP (in nominal U.S. dollars) is $60,300, only fourth highest in the G7. That’s a very disappointing two-thirds of the U.S. level ($94,430), which helps explain why half a million Canadians moved to the U.S. and elsewhere in the past five years. Our standard of living remains lower than Germany’s ($65,300) and slightly below the U.K.’s ($61,060). We’re doing better than France ($52,080), Italy ($46,510) and Japan ($35,700) but that’s really nothing to celebrate.
***TO READ THE FULL ARTICLE, VISIT THE FINANCIAL POST HERE***
Jack Mintz is the President’s Fellow at the University of Calgary’s school of public policy and a distinguished fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
