OTTAWA, ON (August 8, 2025):
Over the past decade, Russia’s Arctic ambitions have shifted from cautious co-operation to strategic domination. Once cast as a zone of peace, the region is now central to Putin’s vision of national renewal and global influence. And Moscow, isolated by war and sanctions, is increasingly reliant on authoritarian powers like China to cement its grip.
In Northern Promises: Deciphering Putin’s plans for Russia’s Arctic, researcher John Kaye charts the evolution of Putin’s Arctic ambitions through the last decade of his speeches and shows that Russia’s posture directly challenges Canadian sovereignty.
Russia tells two very different and contradictory narratives. In one story, Russia is the leading Arctic military power, with capabilities far beyond other nations. In the other story, Russia is in dire danger from Western military expansion into the Arctic, and is only militarizing due to the Western threat. It is hypocritical doublespeak to justify Russia’s aggression internationally while projecting strength domestically.
“Putin’s rhetoric reveals three primary themes,” explains Kaye. “The Arctic as a resource-rich frontier, the dualistic thinking on Russia’s Arctic security, and the social development of the Arctic as a critical national project.”
By framing military buildup as part of responsible development of the region and emphasizing new partnerships, particularly with China, Putin attempts to mask aggressive imperialism in the language of diplomacy and altruism.
In response, Kaye urges Canada and its Arctic partners to counter the narrative through strategic communications that showcase the benefits of a democratic, inclusive approach – not only to directly challenge Putin’s narrative, but also to reinforce a more transparent, co-operative, and sustainable vision for the region’s future.
“Russia is weaker in the Arctic without the relationships it used to have (with Canada and other democratic Arctic nations) and that it compromised… in the name of imperialist dreams,” notes Kaye.
“Putin and his regime will not tell the Russian people that – so the democratic Arctic countries should state this clearly and often.”
To learn more, read the full paper here:
For further information, media are invited to contact:
Skander Belouizdad
Communications Officer
(613) 482-8327 x113
skander.belouizdad@macdonaldlaurier.ca
