This article was published by the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Washington office, the Center for North American Prosperity and Security (CNAPS.org). It originally appeared in the National Post.
By Derek Burney, January 8, 2025
The protracted, often precarious two-and-a-half-month transition between the election and inauguration of a new U.S. president needs reform. The contrast with the timing of transitions in parliamentary democracies like Britain (two days) or Canada (about two weeks) is striking. Both are more efficient in ensuring peaceful transfers of power and orderly deliveries of campaign promises.
Replacing some 5,000 senior administration officials and appointing cabinet members, among others, through the U.S. Senate’s Advice and Consent provisions does take more time than in parliamentary systems where executive and legislative powers are fused, but given advancements in technology, pressing global hot spots and urgent domestic needs, transition timing can and should be overhauled. Forty days should be sufficient.
At least the current transition in the U.S. has so far been peaceful, despite dire prophecies about the threat President-elect Donald Trump posed to democracy. However, it is anything but efficient. President Joe Biden is barely visible, clinging to office despite increasing evidence of declining capability. During an innocuous state visit to Angola for a summit with African leaders last month, he appeared to fall asleep on camera during a meeting.
Meanwhile, the president-elect is acting and speaking more as the real president, and being treated accordingly by foreign counterparts and global business leaders seeking to invest in the U.S. Trump has been overwhelmed by the outreach from foreign leaders — many of whom sought him out at the Dec. 7 reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Those who voted for change want to move on as power shifts to the president-elect, but the transition proceeds slowly due to outdated convention.
Trump has cavalierly mocked his immediate neighbours — Canada and Mexico — with threats of 25 per cent tariffs, which would violate the trilateral trade agreement that he signed during his first presidency, and he has talked brashly about expansion involving Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal. He has emboldened Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, threatening Hamas that they will have “all hell to pay” if the hostages are not released before his Jan. 20 inauguration, and is behaving coyly with Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping. Neither really knows what to expect.
Biden contradicted himself granting a full pardon to his son Hunter, not only for his convictions on drugs and for illegally registering a gun, but also for all crimes he “may” have committed over a 10-year period. Biden issued a record 1,500 pardons and commutations for others serving sentences for mostly non-violent offences, but some involved dubious fraudsters and attracted scorn from senior Democrats. He then commuted death sentences for 37 of the 40 prisoners on Death Row, arousing sharp criticism, especially from victims’ families. (Trump has promised to pardon all the imprisoned Jan. 6 Capitol demonstrators on the day of his inauguration.)
Uncertainty about real power in Washington during a transition creates vulnerability at home and abroad. Along with last year’s assassination attempts on Trump, the terrorist attack in New Orleans that killed 14 people on Jan. 1 and the same-day explosion of a Tesla cybertruck in front of Las Vegas’s Trump Hotel have understandably rattled public confidence in the agencies responsible for public safety and security.
The U.S. was caught off guard by the sudden implosion of the corrupt, repressive regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria — a clear setback for Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, which had been propping up Assad. But it left a power vacuum, one that Israel, asserting its new superpower status in the Middle East, quickly chose to fill, attacking chemical weapons and other munitions facilities in Syria to prevent their use by those leading the revolt — mostly terrorists or terrorist-leaning extremists.
The U.S. should actively support its sole ally in Syria — the Kurds who helped defeat the ISIS caliphate and who retain thousands of ISIS prisoners in custody. Turkey sees these Kurds as a threat and is moving to assert its own regional hegemony — something the U.S. needs to check. The outgoing and incoming administrations should be on the same page to preserve U.S. security interests in the Middle East. Incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz spoke politely about issues being co-ordinated but acknowledged, “We don’t agree on all things.” Any ambiguity underscores the vulnerability of a prolonged transition period.
The new administration and Congress face daunting challenges. The retiring Republican House took three tries to avoid a government shutdown in mid-December. The first included a Christmas tree of goodies for various Congressional representatives and was emphatically shot down by Trump and his staunch ally Elon Musk. The second pared-down version was opposed by most Democrats and 38 Republicans. The final version succeeded in providing temporary relief until March. Despite continued opposition from 34 Republicans, it gained solid support from Democrats and was promptly approved by the Senate, albeit with 20 Republicans opposing.
These shenanigans put Mike Johnson’s re-election for Speaker in jeopardy but, with strong support from Trump, he eked out a narrow 218-215 win. Erratic House Republicans still seem averse to governing and may prove to be the Achilles heel for Trump’s ambitious agenda.
The expiry of the debt limit later this month will trigger a major fiscal challenge for the new president and Congress, one that could frustrate implementation of his major campaign promises. Reconciliation is the special budgetary process that can be used to circumvent a Senate filibuster but, given the difficulty Republicans had avoiding a shutdown last month, a complex budget reconciliation package to secure funding, begin mass deportations, extend tax cuts and increase or abolish the debt ceiling constitute herculean challenges.
Meanwhile, the political situation in Canada following the abrupt dismissal of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Monday’s resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau borders on farce.
Our transition system for a change of government is markedly timelier and more efficient than that in the U.S. Still, there is a need for reform here as well. We should emulate Trump and appoint a prominent CEO like Elon Musk — perhaps Garda World’s highly successful Stephan Crétier — to advise on inefficiency and waste in government and to improve accountability from the senior public service. These bureaucrats may be “permanent” and meant to assure stability but, as recent scandals and the flawed management of public funds attest, they are clearly not accountable.
Derek H. Burney is a former 30-year career diplomat who served as Ambassador to the United States of America from 1989-1993.
