This article originally appeared in the Globe and Mail.
By Charles Burton, January 16, 2024
It was a privilege to be an official observer for Saturday’s national election, witnessing Taiwanese democracy in all its beauty, comedy, looming tragedy – and a high degree of civility that puts Canada’s toxic political culture to shame.
As 2024 unfolds in a world of rising conflict and turmoil, Taiwan’s closely watched vote is the first significant geopolitical statement in a year that will see a record number of global elections. Democracy watchers are nervous after 2023 saw far-right parties elected in places like the Netherlands and Argentina, even making inroads in traditionally liberal Finland. Then there’s the possibility of Donald Trump retaking the White House later this year.
Despite dark threats from Beijing, voters in Taiwan ultimately retained a government that will not compromise on China’s autocratic demands. Unfortunately, the cruel irony is that China’s threats to Taiwan’s freedoms will likely increase because of the re-election of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The consequences of this election are also considerable for Canada, committed as we are to defending the Indo-Pacific while struggling to deal with China’s interference in our own democracy and Beijing’s ever-more sophisticated cyber and conventional espionage.
For Taiwan, it didn’t really matter that much which party won; China’s hostility was deepened by the fact that democratic elections were held at all. On China’s heavily censored social media, searches for “Taiwan election” yield a notice reading “According to relevant laws, regulations and policies, the content of this topic is not displayed.”
But what makes Beijing even more concerned is that Taiwan’s new President Lai Ching-te, earlier in his political career, was an unabashed advocate for Taiwan making a unilateral declaration of independence. Mr. Lai toned this down in his recent campaign speeches, professing to continue his predecessor’s less confrontational line with Beijing. But a very plausible danger from this week’s election result stems from China’s conviction that, under Mr. Lai, there will be no “return of Taiwan to the embrace of the motherland” through peaceful negotiation. And China will not stand idly by if it perceives Mr. Lai as maneuvering internationally to bring about de jure affirmation of the reality that Taiwan is de facto an independent state that is being denied sovereign national rights under international law.
Before the election, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned Taiwan that “voting the wrong way” would lead to war. Mr. Xi may well mean what he says. Likely related to that threat, and to the fact the DPP was politically worn out after eight years in power, Mr. Lai’s party won the election but with a reduced 40 per cent of the vote, losing its majority in Parliament.
While the DPP is now a weakened political force, Taiwan’s two main political alternatives do not inspire confidence in their capacity to keep China at bay.
Certainly not the Kuomintang Party (KMT). It campaigned on increasing religious, cultural and economic exchanges with China “to build mutual trust,” and reviving the China trade bill they had to withdraw in 2014, after angry protesters in the massive Sunflower Movement stormed the legislature. The KMT supports the concept of Taiwan eventually merging into “One China,” albeit not now but at some ill-defined time in the future.
If the KMT returns to power in the future, its program of more integration with Beijing would create vulnerabilities for Taiwan and opportunities for the Chinese Communist Party. Hong Kong’s politically neutered status today could well have been Taiwan’s tomorrow if the KMT had prevailed this time.
As for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), which holds the balance of power in the Legislative Yuan, it presented itself as an alternative to the entrenched KMT-DPP duopoly, campaigning on the theme of people being sick of all the talk of China.
The TPP attracted high support from young voters yearning for something fresh and promising to address their discontent over low wages and high housing costs. But in reality, one can easily imagine Beijing readily crushing any “Don’t worry, be happy” political agenda if the TPP was to assume power. Pretending that China’s threat is not real and present is not much of a solution.
As for what comes next, with Taiwan preparing to navigate its next chapter, one wonders if there will be another free and fair election when Mr. Lai’s term is up in four years. Or if, by 2028, Taiwanese democracy will have succumbed to Beijing’s economic coercion and the People’s Liberation Army imposing the cold reality of Chinese Communist autocratic suppression.
Charles Burton is a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, non-resident senior fellow of the European Values Center for Security Policy in Prague, and former diplomat at Canada’s embassy in Beijing. He is in Taiwan as a member of the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy’s International Election Observation Delegation.
