Writing in the Globe and Mail, Scott Barlow reports that while Canadian GDP has exceeded expectations for the third quarter, as reported Nov. 29, MLI’s Leading Economic Indicator released the same day tells a different story. Barlow points to the LEI’s “considerable success rate” at predicting the twists and turns of economic growth. Barlow writes that the LEI reveals that “the interest rate gap figure measures the difference between government bond rates and corporate lending rates, and right now, it’s worrying. The 0.2 month over month fall indicates that lenders are more skeptical about future corporate profitability.”
MLI’s Leading Economic Indicator was developed by former Statscan chief economist Philip Cross, now a senior fellow at the institute. For more on the LEI, click here.