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Frozen Assets: Russia’s ambitions to exploit the Arctic Ocean seabed

Russia aspires to be the dominant Arctic power. Its Arctic investments strengthen its ability to project economic and military power across the region and into the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans.

June 26, 2025
in National Security, Security and defence - papers, Foreign Policy, National Defence, Latest News, Alexander Dalziel, Europe and Russia, Papers, Arctic
Reading Time: 7 mins read
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Frozen Assets: Russia’s ambitions to exploit the Arctic Ocean seabed

By Alexander Dalziel,

June 26, 2025

PDF of paper

Executive Summary | Sommaire (le français suit)

The Arctic Ocean seabed is the ultimate frontier of Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic. One of the harshest places on the planet, scientists believe it holds large deposits of energy and minerals – though whether they can be made accessible is another matter. In the ice strewn reaches of the most northern waters, oil, gas, and seabed mining projects demand extreme technological prowess. For Russia, success on the seabed would prove that it is a modern and powerful state – and the world’s Arctic leader.

Russia’s economic ambitions in the Arctic outpace those of all the other Arctic countries. At its core, the plan is to expand the geography where Russia can tap natural resources. And economic development of the Arctic Ocean is not just about economics. Russian thinking fully integrates the plans to develop the natural resources of its northern waters with the geopolitical and national security strategies of President Vladimir Putin and his circle. Economic development plans align with the activities of the military, state security agencies, and Russian diplomats to reinforce Russia’s claims to being a country that all others must take into consideration. Putin and his regime have a “grand strategy” that combines all the assets of the state, society, and the economy to meet its national objectives.

In the Arctic Ocean, Russia’s goal to expand its resource base concentrate on its continental shelf and exclusive economic zone (EEZ). In the next decade, Russia’s focus will be on oil and gas, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) seen as the fuel of the future. Seabed mining is a longer-term prospect, almost certainly post-2035 – and likely to extend into more distant Arctic Ocean depths. That is why Russia is making its case at the United Nations (as are Canada and the Kingdom of Denmark) to claim jurisdiction over an “extended” continental shelf at the top of the world – to give itself the exclusive right to access seabed resources.

Russia’s ambitions are great. But are they viable? The realities of implementing its ambitious plans will run into the shortcomings of the Russian state and the economic and political consequences emerging from its grave mistake of invading Ukraine. Sanctions have caused a deficit of foreign investment and foreign innovation. Seabed resource exploitation is a complicated endeavour, especially in the Arctic. It requires technology and financing. Both of those are in shorter supply in Russia in 2025 than they were before Russia’s invasion – and will inhibit Russia’s Arctic agenda. The political risks of oil, gas, and mining projects in Russia’s Arctic waters are unlikely to diminish soon.

Ultimately, national security and regime security – not purely commercial factors – are driving the state subsidies and investments behind these plans. Such investments will have consequences for Russia’s abilities as an Arctic player, but they are unlikely to redress the diminishing power of its natural resources as a political tool to influence and coerce other countries, as its most important markets in Europe move away from natural gas pipelines from Russia and the dependencies they generate.

However, even if investments in the Arctic do not always give Russia a new way to project power in the wider world, they do provide a model of power preservation. By strengthening Russia’s domestic supply chains and economic security in what it sees as a hostile world, the Putin regime believes that Arctic seabed resources are part of holding onto power.

As its plans and activities unfold, Canada, the United States, and their Nordic partners will be watching attentively. Russia’s underwater skillset will grow – and become usable for economic and nefarious purposes. That will present new considerations for protecting maritime critical infrastructure in the North American and Nordic Arctics – and highlights the need for more monitoring and readiness, especially as new natural resource projects and submarine digital cables appear in these regions. That readiness will entail investments in surveillance and specialized equipment, like icebreakers and remotely piloted technologies. More environmental monitoring will be important, to detect potential oil leaks and spills, as well as the effects of potential plumes of sediment from seafloor mining. And there will also be diplomatic ramifications, as Russia will use these activities to create “facts on the seafloor” when negotiating with Canada and the Kingdom of Denmark on demarcating the extent of their continental shelf rights in the Arctic Ocean.

Russia aspires to be the dominant Arctic power. Its Arctic investments have consequences that strengthen its ability to project economic and military power across the region and into the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. In the long term, Russia’s plans for the Arctic seabed are part of the Putin regime’s attempt to maintain domestic stability and international competitiveness in an increasingly authoritarian and technologically lagging state. The Arctic seabed may be part of Russia’s future, but that future will be slow in coming under Putin’s regime.


Les fonds marins de l’océan Arctique délimitent l’ultime frontière des ambitions russes dans l’Arctique. Les scientifiques croient que cet endroit, considéré comme l’un des plus inhospitaliers de la planète, renferme de vastes gisements d’énergie et de minerais – quoiqu’il puisse être ardu de les exploiter. Les activités pétrolières, gazières et minières dans ces eaux jonchées de glace relèvent de prouesses technologiques extrêmes. Pour la Russie, une réussite sur ce type de terrain témoignerait de sa modernité et de sa puissance en tant qu’État – et ferait d’elle le leader mondial dans l’Arctique.

Les ambitions économiques de la Russie en Arctique surpassent celles de tous les pays environnants. La Russie projette essentiellement d’agrandir la zone où elle peut puiser des ressources naturelles. Soulignons que ce développement n’est pas qu’économique. La mise en valeur des ressources puisées dans ses eaux nordiques est indissociable, dans la pensée russe, des stratégies relatives à la géopolitique et à la sécurité nationale du président Vladimir Poutine et de son cercle rapproché. Les projets sont coordonnés avec l’armée, les agences de sécurité de l’État et les diplomates russes pour appuyer les allégations voulant que la Russie soit un pays qui doit absolument être pris en considération par tous les autres. Poutine et son régime ont conçu une « grande stratégie » mobilisant tous les atouts de l’État, de la société civile et de l’économie pour atteindre leurs objectifs nationaux.

Dans l’océan Arctique, la Russie cherche à élargir sa base de ressources en se concentrant sur son plateau continental et sa zone économique exclusive. Dans la prochaine décennie, elle mettra l’accent sur le pétrole et le gaz, le gaz naturel liquéfié étant considéré comme le carburant de l’avenir. L’exploitation minière des fonds marins est envisagée à long terme, presque certainement après 2035 – et pourrait s’étendre jusqu’aux profondeurs les plus lointaines de l’océan Arctique. C’est pourquoi la Russie (tout comme le Canada et le Royaume du Danemark) plaide auprès des Nations Unies pour revendiquer son autorité à l’égard d’un plateau continental « étendu » sur le « Toit du monde » – afin d’obtenir le droit exclusif d’en exploiter les fonds marins.

La Russie a de très grandes ambitions. Mais sont-elles viables? Concrètement, ses projets ambitieux seront entravés par les carences de l’État russe et la grave erreur commise, sur les plans politique et économique, en envahissant l’Ukraine. Les sanctions ont freiné les investissements et les innovations en provenance de l’étranger. La mise en valeur des fonds marins est chose complexe, en particulier dans l’Arctique. Elle exige technologies et financement. En 2025, ces deux ingrédients se font plus rares en Russie qu’avant l’invasion de l’Ukraine – ce qui nuira à son programme pour l’Arctique. Il est peu probable que les risques politiques liés aux projets pétroliers, gaziers et miniers dans les eaux arctiques russes s’amenuisent prochainement.

En dernier recours, la sécurité nationale et celle du régime – pas seulement les facteurs commerciaux – motivent le financement et les investissements d’État pour ces projets. Or, alors que les investissements comme ceux-ci impacteront les capacités de la Russie en Arctique, il est peu probable qu’ils remédient au pouvoir décru de ses ressources naturelles en matière d’influence et de moyen de coercition – puisque ses principaux marchés européens se détournent des gazoducs russes et des dépendances qui en découlent.

Néanmoins, même si les investissements dans l’Arctique ne garantissent pas systématiquement à la Russie un nouveau moyen de gagner de l’influence à l›échelle mondiale, ils offrent tout de même un modèle de préservation de sa puissance. En renforçant les chaînes d’approvisionnement nationales et la sécurité économique dans un monde considéré comme hostile, le régime de Poutine croit que les ressources des fonds marins arctiques sont essentielles pour conserver son pouvoir.

Le Canada, les États-Unis et leurs alliés nordiques surveilleront de près les projets et les actions que la Russie dévoilera graduellement. Les compétences sous-marines de la Russie vont s’accroître – pouvant être utilisées à des fins à la fois économiques et malveillantes. Elles procureront de nouvelles raisons de garantir la protection des infrastructures maritimes vitales dans l’Arctique nord-américain et nordique – soulignant ainsi la nécessité d’une surveillance et d’une préparation renforcées, notamment face aux nouveaux projets de ressources naturelles et de câbles numériques sous-marins dans ces régions. Il faudra donc investir dans la surveillance et l’équipement spécialisé, comme les brise-glaces et les technologies de pilotage à distance. Il sera crucial d’intensifier la surveillance environnementale pour détecter les fuites et les déversements de pétrole, ainsi que pour évaluer les impacts des éventuels panaches de sédiments provenant des fonds marins. Des conséquences diplomatiques seront aussi possibles, car la Russie pourrait profiter de ces activités pour mettre le Canada et le Royaume du Danemark devant les « faits accomplis » lors de négociations sur leurs droits pour le plateau continental arctique.

La Russie souhaite dominer l’Arctique. Ses investissements renforcent son influence économique et militaire dans la région ainsi que dans le Pacifique Nord et l’Atlantique Nord. Ses projets à long terme pour les fonds marins de l’Arctique s’inscrivent dans les efforts du régime de Poutine pour maintenir la stabilité intérieure et la compétitivité internationale dans un État de plus en plus autoritaire et technologiquement en retard. Les fonds marins de l’Arctique pourraient bien faire partie de l’avenir russe, mais cet avenir risque de se faire attendre dans le régime de Poutine.

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