By Christopher Coates, January 20, 2026
Global challenges are rapidly shifting, for Canada as well as for the Nordic and Baltic nations, but while Canada and Canadians are principally focussed on economic challenges and changes, the Baltic and Nordic populations see the increased geopolitical threats posed by Russia as the principal challenge.
The opportunity for Canada is to align with the Nordic and Baltic nations (NB8) to create an arc of solidarity from the edges of the Baltic Sea, through the Nordic and Baltic states, through the North Atlantic, Greenland and across the Canadian arctic. Based on common values, similar resource profiles, shared geographic challenges and solutions, and familiar objectives, this arc would reinforce stability and deterrence.
Canada and the Nordic and Baltic nations would create this arc of stability through collective contributions and action – political, economic and defence. Common approaches for joint action would ensure freedom, prosperity, security, and sovereignty for the nations in the arc. These increased contributions and actions by Canada would accrue increased influence within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
For Canada to partner with the NB8 nations, Canada would need to contribute to collective actions. This would involve investing in real activity – political capital and cooperation, military resources and commitments, and economic cooperation. Doing so with a view to reducing vulnerabilities to Russian and Chinese malign influences would benefit the participating nations, and NATO as a whole. Canada has a great deal in common with these northern nations, in all these areas, and increased cooperation and partnership makes sense.
From a NATO perspective, just as NORDEFCO and Baltic cooperation are seen as complementary, not competing, creating a northern-focussed partnership from the Baltics through Canada would be similar. NATO is an organization that evolves, as threats shift and change. The arctic is increasing in importance for NATO and an evolution will be necessary to increase NATO’s deterrence effects in the region. Harnessing the strengths of Canada and the NB8 would be beneficial to NATO, as deterrence would be strengthened through the north and the arctic. Denying these spaces to Russia and China, while integrating with NATO’s plans, would be a natural complement to increased NATO focus in the area.
The Canadian contributions should be driven by the strategic objective that Canada wishes to pursue. Partnering is the means, not the end. As described above, Canada’s strategic objective (the end) is to “harden” an arc of deterrence in the north, the Arctic, reducing opportunities for Russian, Chinese or other malign influence.
The basis for the approach is found in Canada’s Arctic Foreign Policy. The policy indicates that “Canada will explore and foster new partnerships to strengthen the strategic resilience of the North American Arctic.” This same objective and approach should be extended beyond the North American Arctic, to the arctic arc from the Baltics through Scandinavia, the North Atlantic to North America.
As they are described in Canada’s Arctic Foreign Policy, many of the same challenges exist for the NB8, and there are opportunities to contribute comprehensively and collectively to northern and arctic-focussed communications, arctic science, research and development, surveillance, as well as combined military training, exercises and activities. The policy indicates that, “Now more than ever, it is critical for Canada to have strong partnerships with the Nordic states”. The arctic diplomacy described in the policy should extend to fully include NB8 partners, and Canada has already started that through the strategic partnerships with Sweden and Finland.
What is needed is to expand the rationale, or the reason, beyond those articulated in Canada’s Arctic Foreign Policy and focussed on strengthening the North American arctic, to include the objective of establishing a reinforced, hardened northern or arctic band, or arc. This deterrence objective would guide investments and collaboration in diplomacy, economic development, enforcement and implementation of rule of law mechanisms, effectively reducing opportunities for Russian and Chinese grey-zone activity, alongside the increased military deterrence activities.
The impediment to this approach would be the misaligned threat perceptions between Canada and the Nordic/Baltic partners. The NB8 have very much aligned on the need to counter Russia in the arctic, shifting national investments accordingly. Canada and the Canadian population do not yet share the same threat perceptions and do not see the threats to the same degree or urgency as the other nations. The Canadian government will be out of alignment with these partners until a shared threat perception animates the population and the nation’s leadership.
It is now up to Canada to expand its objectives and ambitions beyond the North American arctic and to partner with Nordic and Baltic states to create a northern or arctic arc of stability and resilience from the Baltic Sea through the North Atlantic, across Greenland and the Canadian arctic.
This blog is based on his remarks at a CIPS event held on January 9, 2026.
Christopher Coates is the Director of Foreign Policy, National Defence and National Security at The Macdonald-Laurier Institute. Retiring as a Lieutenant-General after 34 years, he served in senior leadership positions of the Canadian military alongside Canada’s allies and defence partners.
