By J.L. Granatstein, January 15, 2026
Will Canada acquire the F-35? That question has been in dispute for more than fifteen years. The Harper government agreed to buy the F-35 in 2010 but paused the decision in 2012. The Trudeau Liberals campaigned against the F-35 in the election of 2015 and then decided to acquire a total of 88 of the fighters in 2023. But in March 2025, the new Carney Liberal government – its elbows up high – decided that a review of the purchase was necessary.
Ten months later, with the review completed, no decision has been announced. In the interim, public support for the Swedish Gripen fighter has boomed. Canadians are furious with Donald Trump, his administration, his policies, the Epstein cover-up, ICE raids in search of criminal illegal aliens, and the offensive bluster in Ottawa from US ambassador Pete Hoekstra. As a result, very substantial majorities across the country (72 per cent in one end-year poll) want Ottawa to assert itself and scrap the F-35 commitment and buy the Gripen jets instead. Delay has made the decision to go ahead with the F-35 very difficult, especially for a government in a minority position – and with Liberal voters, according to the polls, very unhappy.
It is fair to say that the merits and drawbacks of the two aircraft are understood by very few Canadians. However, this is now immaterial, and the issue is about sovereignty and politics. If Carney had announced the purchase when he took power, the debate would have been settled. Now, if he cancels the F-35, the Trump administration will be obliged to react.
What might it do?
First, a little history. In the summer of 1940, France had surrendered to Hitler, Britain was on the verge of defeat, and North America was threatened. Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King and President Franklin Roosevelt met at Ogdensburg, NY, on August 18 and created the Permanent Joint Board on Defence, a very important step for both nations. At one point in the talks, Mackenzie King said Canada would not wish to sell or lease any sites in Canada to the US. Roosevelt responded that the British had been slow in agreeing to give the United States access to bases in the West Indies in return for fifty old American destroyers. Roosevelt then continued: “if war developed with Germany and he felt it necessary to seize [the bases] to protect the United States, he would do that in any event. That it was much better to have a friendly agreement in advance.” King did not seem to view this as a threat to Canadian bases, though Roosevelt undoubtedly meant it that way.
On January 13 of this year, President Trump was in Michigan to speak at a Ford plant. Asked about the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement – the free trade deal up for review this year – Trump said, “There’s no real advantage to it, it’s irrelevant. Canada would love it. Canada wants it. They need it.”
He was right. Canada does need it.
And if Canada cancels the F-35, it will be much harder to get a new USMCA. Why? Because the Canadian F-35s, along with those based in Alaska, are intended to defend North America against Russian and Chinese fighter aircraft and bombers. The F-35s are better than anything these potential adversaries have, and they have far better stealth, electronics, can shoot down cruise missiles, and are also effective against drones.
The US takes defence very seriously, and if Canada scraps the F-35 and goes with an undoubtedly inferior Swedish aircraft, the defences of both Canada and the United States would be gravely weakened. Washington will be furious and the trade negotiations will be seriously threatened.
What else might the Trump administration do in such circumstances? It won’t invade Canada or attack Ottawa. But the US Air Force might seek to gain permission to base its F-35s on Canada’s two fighter bases in Bagotville, QC, and Cold Lake, AB, where construction of F-35 infrastructure has been underway for two years. There are also four Forward Operating Locations in the Arctic, again with construction for the F-35s underway or planned, and these also would be sought.
But what if Ottawa balked, hesitated, and delayed a decision (as is regrettably the Canadian way)?
Trump would not know what Roosevelt said in 1940, but his National Security Strategy released at the beginning of last December declared American interests and defence paramount in the Western Hemisphere. Given his brutal threats to Denmark and his desire to acquire Greenland, he might simply say to Ottawa that the United States must have these operational hubs and if, as FDR put it, “he felt it necessary to seize them to protect the United States,” he would do so. There is unfortunately nothing Canada could do militarily or politically to resist such a move. Nor is there anything our allies in NATO could or would do. Donald Trump is certainly no FDR but history sometimes seems to repeat.
There are, in all likelihood, planners at the Pentagon drawing up plans to get USAF F-35s into Canada. There are probably staff officers at National Defence Headquarters in Ottawa beginning to think about what to do next if Carney decides to scrap the F-35 commitment. Unfortunately, there are no good answers, no effective responses available for Canada. If we want to protect our sovereignty and bolster our defences and that of the United States, we must hope that the Prime Minister makes the correct decision on the F-35 very soon.
J.L. Granatstein is a member of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s Research Advisory Board. A bestselling author, Granatstein was the director and CEO of the Canadian War Museum.
