By Joe Varner, November 26, 2025
The greatest danger facing the West today is not the strength of its adversaries – it is the weakening will of its own democracies.
Autocrats understand that they cannot defeat the combined military power of NATO, the United States, and the democratic Indo-Pacific. But they believe they can fracture it – politically, psychologically, and economically. Their strategy is clear: break Western unity long before the battlefield decides anything.
This is the context in which Russian President Vladimir Putin views US President Donald Trump’s proposed “peace plan” for Ukraine. The Kremlin knows it cannot impose a decisive military victory on Ukraine with conventional forces. But Moscow also knows that if Washington pressures Kyiv into territorial concessions, limits on sovereignty, or a frozen conflict that locks in Russian gains, Russia will be handed what it could never earn through force of arms: a political strategic victory born of Western division.
This would not only endanger Ukraine. It would destabilize NATO, shake confidence in US leadership, and send an unmistakable signal to every dictator watching – from Beijing to Tehran – that Western resolve can be negotiated away. Putin has long understood that modern war is a contest of wills. His strategy has shifted from attrition on the battlefield to attrition of Western political cohesion. A Ukraine settlement on Moscow’s terms would validate that approach. It would signal to China that US commitments to the Indo-Pacific can be bent under domestic political pressure. It would reassure Iran that sustained aggression will fracture Western alignment. It would leave Israel, already fighting a war on seven fronts, questioning how long its most important ally will remain steadfast.
Dictators are watching this moment closely. They see an American political system consumed by partisanship, legislative paralysis, and an appetite for short-term transactional solutions. They see Europeans balancing rising defence needs with economic strain. They see an international system taxed by regional conflicts from Gaza to the Taiwan Strait. Their conclusion is that they can exploit democratic hesitation.
Trump’s proposed Ukraine “deal,” whatever its specifics, reinforces that belief. The danger is not just the policy. It is the precedent. The revelation that Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff coached the Russians on how to sell what amounts to Moscow’s peace plan to the American president further erodes confidence in the US administration and NATO solidarity. If the West accepts the idea that borders can be redrawn by force, that a nuclear-armed aggressor can be rewarded, or that alliance commitments can be adjusted to suit the politics of the moment, then the global order begins to unravel.
Those lessons will be heard loudly in Beijing. China sees Ukraine as a testing ground for American resolve. If Russia is allowed to keep what it has taken, China will draw its own conclusions about Taiwan. Sadly, Trump’s recent phone call to Chinese Secretary General Xi Jinping also appears to call into question the US commitment to Japan and Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression. In Tehran, Iranian leaders will see weakness as an invitation for more aggression. In North Korea, Kim Jong-un will interpret Western division as a licence to escalate. These are not isolated theatres. They are linked arenas in a single strategic contest between authoritarian ambition and democratic resolve. A fracture in one region reverberates across all others. A political defeat in Ukraine would embolden dictators everywhere.
Western unity has always been the backbone of global stability. During the Cold War, NATO deterred Soviet aggression not simply because it was militarily strong but because it was politically cohesive. Adversaries knew that if they tested one NATO state, they would face all of them. That credibility prevented war. The same principle must guide us now. NATO and the wider Western alliance remain the critical counterweight to revisionist states that believe force, coercion, or expansionism can reshape borders and silence democratic societies. The strength of this coalition has never been measured solely in battalions or budgets, but in a shared commitment to common values – liberty, self-determination, the rule of law, and the inherent dignity of sovereign nations – that bind democracies together even when politics diverge. Alliance cohesion is not a diplomatic nicety. It is deterrence.
Ukraine’s fight is part of a broader defence of the international order that has enabled democratic prosperity. Support for Israel’s security, the defence of Taiwan, and the maintenance of Indo-Pacific sea lanes all depend on a perception that the US and its allies stand firm, not when convenient but when necessary.
That is why national will is now the decisive front. Autocrats are not betting that they can outgun the West. They are betting that they can outlast it – that democratic fatigue will outweigh strategic necessity, that partisanship will overwhelm principle, and that alliances built on consent will prove weaker than regimes built on coercion. They are wrong – but only if we show them they are wrong.
This is a moment that demands clarity of purpose: sustained military support for Ukraine; renewed commitment to NATO’s eastern and northern flanks; expanded partnerships in the Indo-Pacific; and unwavering backing for Israel’s right to defend itself. These are investments not in distant conflicts but in the stability of the world – which Canada, the United States, and their allies depend upon. If the West stands together, no combination of dictators can match its power, its prosperity, or its legitimacy. But if we allow ourselves to fracture – if we trade long-term security for short-term political gain – then our adversaries will not need to win on the battlefield. They will have already won where it matters most: in our resolve.
The dictators believe this is their moment. Whether they are right depends on us.
Joe Varner is the deputy director of the Conference of Defence Associations, and a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute in Ottawa and the Center for North American Prosperity and Security in Washington, D.C.
