This article originally appeared in What’s Up with Alberta.
By Heather Exner-Pirot, January 9, 2026
Predictions about the demise of the Canadian oil sector have been a regular refrain for the past decade. From the shale revolution to the energy transition, from Trudeau-era policies to Trump tariffs, you could be forgiven for believing the Canadian oil sector is constantly on the brink of collapse.
The latest supposed death knell comes, of course, from the American capturing of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. U.S. President Donald Trump has variously promised that the U.S. will run Venezuela, that U.S. oil companies should be up and running in 18 months, and that the U.S. may “subsidize” operations there. Canadian oil stocks took a beating on Monday morning on the bad vibes, with Venezuela’s heavy oil a putative contender to the oil sands in American markets.
In the end, headlines and punditry will prove no match for economics and logistics. Through volatility and turbulence, Canadian oil producers remain stoic. This sector is not built for the easily panicked. It is made for those that would keep calm and carry on, and go back to what the oil and gas business in Alberta knows best: incremental production increases, competitive returns on investment, low-decline assets, reliable transportation infrastructure, and shareholder value.
I say this as a pundit. I opine on headlines and vibes. But the business of Canadian oil and gas provides a retreat from that noise. There are no cowboys or gangsters here, just the annual setting of production records and the steady lowering of costs. This quality – the lack of drama, the reliability, the steadfastness – has been underappreciated.
The silver lining of the past week’s turbulence is that I believe more and more that reliability will be valued: by customers, investors and Canadians themselves. Drama and disruption make for good news ratings, but they are very undesirable qualities when it comes to energy security and economic performance. There has been too much drama.
When asked in Paris about the implications of the events in Venezuela, Prime Minister Carney answered that “Canadian oil will be competitive because it is low-risk.” Indeed, its main source of risk has been our own policies and politicians.
As we enter whatever new geopolitical era we have crossed the threshold into, I expect the relative calm by which Canadians produce and bring hydrocarbons to market will make us attractive to buyers.
Just as importantly, I believe Canadians will want less drama in how we approve and build oil and gas infrastructure at home. The events of the past week sparked a bit of headline panic, and it seemed to me more Canadians felt invested in the health of our oil and gas sector, and uneasy with the risks.
Alberta’s oil has moved from being thought of as a political football to a strategic necessity. High global political risk and low domestic political risk might be a very sweet spot for Canadian producers in the years to come.
Heather Exner-Pirot is director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
